【作者】 杨永俊；

【导师】 荣莉莉；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,国内外各种突发事件频发,造成了极大的人员伤亡和财产损失。应急预案是应对这些突发事件的行动指南,对其进行评价,找出缺陷,并进行完善,意义重大。但是,现有的评价预案的方法只能得到预案的综合能力,不能找出预案的缺陷具体在哪。为改变这一现状,本文在构建突发事件应急响应流程的基础上,给出了一种新的评价预案的方法,该方法,不仅可以评价预案的综合能力,更重要的是,还可以找出预案缺陷,为有关部门修订完善预案提供决策建议。本文主要从以下几个方面进行研究:首先,通过对预案的章节目录的统计来分析预案的结构,并构建了预案的结构评价指标体系。选取17个国家专项应急预案作为研究样本,对样本预案所有的一级标题和二、三级标题进行统计,通过自组织特征映射网(SOM网)对标题的聚类分析来研究预案结构的相似性,并在聚类结果的基础上提出了构建预案结构评价指标体系的方法。其次,从突发事件应急响应所需的五个方面的知识(主体知识、突发问题知识、应急资源知识、时间知识、关系知识)来分析预案内容。以《国家地震应急预案》为例,提取该预案所包含的这五类知识,并从应急救援的角度分析现有预案中的每类知识所存在的不足。再次,针对现有预案内容无法满足决策者快速反应需求的现状,从应急救援的角度,提出了突发事件应急响应的逻辑框架,并构建了突发事件应急响应一般流程,在此基础上,以地震为例,构建了地震应急响应流程,并提出了基于应急响应流程的应急知识整合方法,根据该方法,在应对突发事件的时候,决策者能够快速获取每个突发问题的解决方案知识,从而科学有效地应对突发事件。最后,本文在突发事件应急响应流程的基础上,提出了基于知识供需匹配的预案内容评价方法。根据突发事件应急响应流程来分析应急响应需求知识,通过对预案内容进行反问的方式分析预案供给知识,通过这两方面知识的匹配给出了评价预案内容完备性的方法。本文的创新在于:针对现有预案无法满足突发事件快速反应的现状,通过构建突发事件应急响应流程将分散的、凌乱的应急知识进行整合,并能够通过对预案的评价发现预案的不足,为修订完善预案提供明确建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Over these years,various kinds of emergency events break out.As the guidelines of dealing with emergency events,whether emergency plans are perfect or not will affect the efficiency of emergency response directly.But traditional evaluation methods can only get comprehensive results of emergency plans,and can not locate their deficiencies.Aiming at this kind of situation,this paper proposes the method of evaluating emergency plans based on the process of emergency response.This method can not only get comprehensive results of emergency plans,even more important,it also can find out the deficiencies of emergency plans.Firstly,this paper takes 17 emergency plans as a sample,and analyzes the similarity of their structures through performing statistic analysis and clustering on their first-headings, second-headings and third headings,and establishes evaluation index system for evaluating the structures of emergency plans according to the result of clustering.Secondly,this paper analyzes the contents of emergency plans through analyzing the five factors(Subject,Emergency problems,Emergency resources,Time and Relations) of emergency response.This paper takes The Nation Emergency Plans for Earthquakes for example and abstracts all the five factors in this plan to analyze the deficiencies of the content of this plan.Thirdly,this paper proposes a method of recombining emergency knowledge according to the process of emergency response,and also gives us the detailed steps of establishing the process of emergency response.Finally,this paper proposes the method of evaluating the contents of emergency plans based on the matching of knowledge supply and demand.We get the knowledge demand from the process of emergency reponse,and get knowledge supply from emergency plans.The innovation of this paper:Aiming at the situation that existing plans can not meet the need for rapid response,this paper can recombine the emergency knowledge and find out the specific deficiencies of emergency plans using the process of emergency response.更多还原