【作者】 林佩贤；

【导师】 陈青山；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 流行病与卫生统计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 【目的】以Excel软件为平台,编制具备通用性和操作简便性的Delphi法资料统计分析程序,为该类型资料的统计分析提供一个简便易用的计算途径。【方法】1.查阅文献:查阅国内外有关Delphi法的专著及文献,了解和熟悉其原理、过程和统计分析方法,以及应用Delphi法确定条目权重的方法。2.编写程序:根据Delphi法的统计分析计算公式,应用Excel软件的统计、数学、数组、逻辑等函数及VBA,编写及调试程序。3.评价程序:将Excel程序的分析结果与SAS、SPSS的计算结果进行比较并评价。【结果】建立了Delphi法资料的Excel统计分析程序,该程序可提供包括专家基本情况、积极程度、权威程度、专家意见集中程度、协调程度,以及常用的结合Delphi法获得指标权重方法的计算结果。权重计算方法分为按指标重要性评分计算权重和专家直接评定权重两类,前者包括直接估计法、加权均值法、百分权重法、秩和比法、改进的比例分配法、对比排序法和专家排序法,后者包括专家直接打分法、层次分析法和优序图法。通过实例数据的验算,Excel程序与SAS、SPSS的分析结果一致,并在通用性、易用性和可及性上具有一定的优势。【结论】应用Excel可编制通用性的Delphi法资料统计分析程序,该程序具有通用性强、界面直观、操作简便的特点。更多还原

【Abstract】 [ObjectivelA universal procedure for Delphi method was established based on the platform of Excel software.The aim of the study is to provide an easy-to-use calculational way for Delphi method.[Methods]1.Reviewed literatures.Domestic and international monographs and literatures about Delphi method were consulted,to understand and be familiar with the principles,process of Delphi method,statistical analysis,and the calculative methods for index weight.2.Programmed.The procedure was established and tested according to the computational formulas of Delphi method,by applied the statistical,mathematic,array,logical functions and VBA of Excel.3.Evaluated procedure.The consistency of statistical results among Excel procedure,SAS,and SPSS,were compared and evaluated with actual data.[Results]An Excel procedure for Delphi method was established to provide statistical analysis for experts’ basic information,level of the authority,concentration and coordination of attitude,as well as index weight.Two kinds of method for calculating index weight were included:one was based on the important grade of index,dealing wtih directed estimation methods,weighted mean method,percentile weight method,RSR,improved proportional distribution method,compared scoring method and expert precedence ordering method;another one was based on the estimate of index weight by experts,dealing with expert direct scoring method,AHP and precedence chart. The computed results were consistent with the outcome of SAS and SPSS.This Excel program possessed universal property and easy to operate.[Conclusions]A universal data analysis procedure for Delphi method can be established by employing Excel. The Excel procedure can operate statistical analysis for Delphi method correctly and conveniently.更多还原