【作者】 代俊林；

【导师】 刘正江；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着世界各国经济大规模的发展,船舶科技的进步,船舶日益大型化、快速化,船舶在港口航行会遇率增大,港口交通变得越来越拥挤,船舶交通安全风险迅速增大,导致水域交通不安全因素不断增大。为了预防和减少交通事故,保障海上交通安全,提高通航效率,防止环境污染,如何增进海上交通安全与效率是值得重视的课题。本文运用水上交通安全管理研究的整体思路和海上交通工程学的基本原理,以数理统计和排队论的方法科学的研究和分析港口中船舶的航行、待泊和进出港船舶的顺序的问题;以泊松流拟合船舶到达流,以一阶爱尔朗分布衡量港口服务时间和靠泊时间,系统分析港口阻塞原因及其对船舶队长的影响;采用交通流统计、安全指数评估方法以及理论计算与问卷调查相结合的方法,对青岛港水域的船舶交通安全性进行了定量化研究;为避免船舶在港口水域因为等候进出造成的拥挤导致碰撞,交管中心对于到达船舶、等待进港及出港船舶基于航道安全必须做出适当的排序,既可解决通航安全亦可达到通航效率,本研究结合船舶通行安全有关的资料,以青岛港水域为例,运用层次分析法对船舶权重进行分析,兼顾通航安全与效率,通过验证确定其实用性,为解决进出港排序问题的研究奠定基础,以期能增进港口水域的交通管理功能的进一步发展。本研究的完成,为提高青岛港通航管理提供科学合理的决策依据,同时丰富了海上交通安全领域的研究体系,补充了我国海上通航安全和效率方面的不足,本文对青岛港口和锚地的规划也有一定的理论和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 With fast development of the world’s economy,as well as the progress of science and technology of ship,the ship becomes increasingly large.scaled and rapid;as a result, the rate of ships meeting in port increases,the traffic in the port is becoming increasingly crowded,and the safety risk of ship increases rapidly,leads to unsafe factors increase on water.In order to prevent and reduce traffic accidents,to ensure the safety of marine traffic,to improve the traffic efficiency,to protect the environment from polluting,how to improve navigation safety and efficiency is an important issue.This paper studies the overall outlook of water traffic safety at sea and the basic principles of traffic engineering,using mathematical statistics and the methods of queuing theory to research and analyze scientifically the issue of the order according to which the ship’s navigation,mooring,entering and leaving in the port;to ship fitting Poisson arrival stream flow to the first.order Erlang distribution of port services to measure time and the berthing time and the reasons for systematic analysis of port blocking and the effects on the captain of the ship;the use of traffic flow statistics, assessment methods,as well as safety index calculation with a combination of survey methods,Safety Harbor waters of the ship conducted a quantitative research;in order to avoid the waters of the ship in port because of congestion caused by waiting for access to lead to collisions,traffic control center for the arrival of the ship,waiting for clearance to enter port and ship security must be based on the channel to make the appropriate sort,it will resolve the traffic safety of navigation efficiency can be achieved,this study combined with the ship traffic safety.related information to the waters of Qingdao,Hong Kong as an example,the use of analytic hierarchy process to analyze the weight of the ship,taking into account navigation safety and efficiency, through the validation to determine their relevance,in order to address the issue of entry and exit to sort lay the foundation for the study with a view to enhance the port waters of the traffic management capabilities to further develop.The completion of this study,in order to improve the management of Qingdao port navigation to provide a scientific basis for rational decision.making,at the same time enriching the research in the field of maritime safety system,added of China’s maritime navigation safety and efficiency of the shortcomings of this article and the anchorage of the port of Qingdao is also planning a theoretical and practical significance.更多还原