【作者】 张锋；

【导师】 谭忠富；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,中国电力市场处于改革的过程中,条件的欠缺使需求侧管理不能充分发挥其功效,不能有效的解决电力供需平衡问题。面对结构性、时段性的缺电,只有开展有序用电工作。本文在充分调研洛阳市用电市场的基础上,研究了有序用电编制工作中的影响因素,提出了有序用电综合评价的指标体系,运用改进的模糊层次分析法计算了指标体系的各部分权重及整体权重,以减少专家评分的不确定性;最终建立了有序用电的综合评价模型。选用了聚类技术中的K-均值法对影响有序用电的直接价值和间接价值两个维度进行聚类。建立了检验模型,从成本效益角度证明了指标的合理性和科学性。选取洛阳供电公司10家工业用户进行实证分析,验证了该指标体系,可以作为电力公司筛选客户压限负荷的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Presently, the electricity market in the progress of reform, Demand-Side-Management can not play an important role and can not effectively resolve the problem of electricity supply-demand balance. In order to solve the problem of regional and phsic Power shortage, we need to carry out orderly power.Based on complete investigation in Luoyang, the Factors Influencing orderly power are researched, and an index system for evaluating the orderly power is established in this thesis. The part weight and the whole weight of the index system are calculated by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP), in order to reduce the uncertainty of experts scoring. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation model is set up. K-means method in the clustering technology is employed in electricity customers clustering from two dimensions of current value and potential value. Empirical analysis is carried out to 10 industrial users in Luoyang, and the index system is verified. On the basis of the index system and the model, Power company can be better to choose users to limit the load.更多还原