【作者】 王沙燚；

【导师】 张我华；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 岩土工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 灾害系统是一个极其复杂的巨系统,它的发生、演化都具有相当复杂的特征,如有序化、突跳性、不可逆性、长期不可预测性以及模糊性、灰色特性等,这些特征都是传统的牛顿力学所不能描述的。然而,耗散结构、协同、突变论、混沌理论等非线性理论和复杂性科学的出现,使得从总体上研究系统灾变的非线性动力学发生、演化过程及控制因素成为可能。以耗散结构、协同、突变论、混沌理论的非线性理论强调了系统发生、演化的方向,亦即系统演化的不可逆性。开放的灾害系统吸收负熵流,系统的各个组成部分之间存在非线性作用,并在涨落作用下通过自组织和突变形成新的有序的结构—耗散结构。本文从耗散结构和自组织的角度研究整理了实际工程中的滑坡、围岩系统演化、水土流失、生物湮灭等灾变过程的发生、演化,总结了复杂性科学在煤矿安全管理中的指导作用,并介绍了耗散理论在社会经济、证券市场、气象、水文循环中的应用。突变理论是研究系统的状态随外界控制参数连续改变而发生不连续变化的数学理论,是研究灾变系统突跳特性的重要工具。本文介绍了尖点突变模型在系统危险性评价、预测和采矿、水利工程中灾害分析的应用,以及在隧道、地下硐室施工中防灾的指导作用;介绍了含软弱夹层岩体边坡失稳问题和建筑火灾的燕尾突变模型的应用。针对灾害系统的模糊性和灰色特性,本文介绍了利用模糊理论和灰色预测理论,为灾害系统的分级、综合评价、聚类分析和灾害的预测等问题整理出了较系统的解决办法。此外,灾害链理论是近几年才发展起来的灾害理论,本文介绍了基于灾害链式发生机理的防灾减灾新方法的当前有关成果。信息熵是热力学熵的推广,是系统混乱程度的测度。灾害系统的发生就是降维、有序化的过程,因此,用信息熵的演化来描述灾害系统的发生、演化特征是可行的。本文在修正一些既有灾害熵表述的不足之处基础上,构造灾变信息熵基本量的特征,并提出了基于损伤张量第一不变量构造损伤信息熵的观念。介绍了信息熵应用于系统的安全评价以及水文循环等实际问题中。混沌论是上世纪60年代才建立起来的科学,混沌是指在确定性系统中出现的无规则性或不规则性,灾害的混沌特征主要表现在短期可预测而长期不可预测的特征。用Lyapunov指数、Kolmogorov熵、分数维等研究、预测灾害系统的演化,以达到防灾的目的。本文介绍了滑坡、基坑的非线性混沌预测以及基于混沌理论的冲击地压预测的具体方法。本文总结大量的灾害研究的资料,并以此为基础探索、总结了灾害系统的非线性与灾变动力学的研究内容和方法,从大系统角度讨论了如何研究灾害孕育、演化、发生、传播、影响,评定、预测和防止的普遍规律和方法。提出了建立灾害系统和灾变动力学的思想和理论框架体系,为灾害研究以及防灾减灾提供了新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Disaster system is a extremely complex huge system with the complex characters during the process of generation and evolution,such as order, mutation, irreversible denaturation, long-period unpredictability and fuzzy, gray and others, which the traditonal Newtonian mechanics cannot describe for it’s the law independent on the time, and the results of the evolution will determine. However, the appearance of non-linear complexity system science,including dissipative structure, synergism, catastrophe theory and chaos theory, makes it possible to on the study of nonlinear dynamics disaster generating, evolutiing and the governing factor on the whole. Non-linear complexity system science,which is based on dissipative structure, synergism , catastrophe theory and chaos theory, focuses the point on the direction of evolution,what is the irreversibility.The open disaster systems take in negative entropy flow to form a sort of order structure—dissipative structures, via non-linear interactivity between the components and the fluctuation. This essay analyses the projects such as landslides, the process of soil erosion , the evolution of rock system and the depopulation of creature on the view of dissipation and self-organization, and generalizes the application of complexity science in supervision of the safety management in coalmine, and introduces its application of dissipative in socio-economic, meteorological and hydrological in the application.Catastrophe theory is a mathematical theory which studies the discontinuous change of status of the system by the discontinuous change of the control parameters outside ,and it’s an important tool to study the sudden jump of the system. This essay introduces seven kinds of basic catastrophe model, and the application of cusp catastrophe in the system risk assessment, prediction and in mining, water conservancy projects, and its instruct in the tunnel, the underground chamber. And introduces the Dovetail Catastrophe model in the problem of landslides with weak rock slope and the fire disaster of construction.The essay introduces the use of the fuzzy theory and grey theory to class, integration assess and merging cluster or predict the disasters System for ite attribute of fuzzy and grey. In addition,the disasters chain is a theory developing in resent years. It provides a new pattern to prevent and decrement the disaster from the mechanics of the occurred of disaster chain.Entropy is the extension of Boltzmann thermodynamic entropy. It’s the measurement of the degree of system’s confusion. The generating of disaster system is just a process of dimensionality reduction and an orderlization. Therefore, it’s feasible to describe the occurrance and evolution of the disaster system with information entropy. This essay corrects the errors of the achievements, brings forward the basic characteristics of variable to construct the information entropy and constructs the information entropy based on the first invariant of injury tensor, and designs finite element program for the problem of anisotropic injury in dam,besids,the application of information entropy for the safety evaluation system ,the hydrological cycle, and other practical problems.Chaos theory is the science built in the 1960s.Chaos means the irregularity or ruleless in the uncertain system. The chaotic character of disaster system is mainly embodimented on the performance of predictable in short term and unpredictable in long-term. It’s feasible to predict the evolution of disaster system with Lyapunov index, Kolmogorov entropy, fraction dimension. The essay introduces the specific method of Chaos prediction in landslides, the nonlinear chaotic pit forecast based on chaos theory and the impact of pressure to predict.This essay summarized a lot of information on disasters and explores the content of disasters system and dynamics of engineering disaster. It studies the disaster system from another perspective, which is different from traditional in nature,and provides a new thought for disaster research and disaster prevention and reduction.更多还原