【作者】 焦琦；

【导师】 黄燕君；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 本文运用宏观分析与微观分析相结合,规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,研究了代表国内外资金相对价格的汇率以及代表国内资金价格的利率与房地产价格的互动影响机制,并针对我国的实际情况进行具体分析。通过分析资本市场、商品市场和货币市场的不同影响因素和效应机制,本文将汇率与房地产价格之间的关联效应总结为流动性效应机制、预期效应机制及溢出机制,并对更有说服力的预期机制进行了实证研究,证明了人民币预期升值会促使房地产价格上涨。同时,本文利用“不可能三角形”的理论解释了汇率冲击对不同国家房地产泡沫影响各异的原因,为如何预防国内产生房地产泡沫提供了借鉴。对于利率与房地产价格的关系,本文分别从房地产需求方与供给方的角度进行了研究。利用对中国房地产价格和各种实际存贷款利率关系的实证检验,得出结论,短期而言,利率与房价存在负向影响,长期而言,一年期商业贷款实际利率对房价存在正向影响。同时,本文分析了利率在美国次级抵押贷款危机中的作用,指出错误的利率政策会对房地产市场甚至整个经济产生危害。因此,在现阶段选择适当的利率手段调控房地产市场,有利于保持我国房地产价格的稳定,从而促进宏观经济与金融的稳定。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the study methodology of combining the micro analysis and macro analysis jointly and binding the positive analysis and the normative analysis together, this thesis focuses on the interaction mechanism between the exchange rate which is on behalf of the relative price of domestic and foreign capital, as well as the interest rate which is on behalf of domestic funds and the real estate prices. And also it carries out a specific analysis against the actual situation of our country. In the analysis of different factors and reactions of the property market, the currency market and the commodity market, this paper summarizes the interaction of the exchange rate and the real estate prices as the expectation, wealth and spill-over effect. It sets up a mathematical model on the most persuasive mechanism of expectation effect to prove that the expected revaluation of RMB exchange rate will lead the estate prices up. At the same time, this article makes use of the "Impossible Triangle" theory to explain the different impacts when the exchange rate shocks different countries’ real estate markets, providing a reference for the prevention of domestic real estate bubble. For the relationship between interest rates and real estate prices, this article studies from the perspective of the demand-side and the supply-side separately. By the empirical tests between Chinese real estate prices and the actual deposit and lending rates of, it concludes that for the short term, interest rates affect housing prices negatively, and for the long term, there exists a positive impact for one-year real interest rates of commercial loans on housing prices. The article also analyzes the role of the interest rates in the United States subprime mortgage crisis, pointing out that the wrong interest rate policy will harm the real estate market and even the economy as a whole. Therefore, at this stage, it is better to choose the appropriate interest rate means to control the real estate market. It is conducive to maintain the stability of our country’s real estate prices and to promote the stability of macroeconomic and financial market.更多还原