陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长关系实证研究

【作者】 高娟；

【导师】 郝索；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 产业经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 现代经济增长方式本质上是结构主导型增长方式,即以产业结构变动为核心的经济增长,产业结构作为以往经济增长的结果和未来经济增长的基础,合理化、高度化的产业结构可以使资源得到优化配置,从而促进经济快速增长;经济增长会使人均国民收入水平提高,进而引起需求的变动,最终带动经济结构包括产业结构的变化。陕西省是西部大省,在拉动西部与中部和东部经济的过程中起着极为重要的作用,目前对陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长关系的研究大都是定性分析,缺少定量分析研究。因此,对陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长关系进行研究,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文以产业结构及其与经济增长关系的相关理论综述为基础,运用大量的数据,从三次产业结构变动、产业结构变动效益、关联分析三个层面对陕西省产业结构进行了动态分析,发现了三产内部结构存在的矛盾,以此为基础及时进行产业结构调整优化。同时选取第一产业从业人员占总从业人员比重、第一产业产值占GDP比重和国内生产总值指数为研究变量,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对陕西省产业结构与经济增长关系进行了验证。最后选取陕西第一、二、三产业产值、细分行业产值和GDP为研究变量,采用多元回归分析方法,得出三个产业及其细分行业对经济增长贡献的增长弹性。通过实证研究,得出以下结论:陕西产业结构变动是经济增长的格兰杰成因,经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著影响;第二产业、工业对经济增长的贡献很大。在上述研究的基础上,从农业、第二产业和第三产业方面具体提出结构调整对策,比如通过农业产业化经营转移农村剩余劳动力、以技术创新提高工业化水平、大力发展新兴服务业等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The essence of Modern economic growth mode is the structure of growth-oriented, that is, changes in industrial structure as the core of economic growth, industrial structure as a result of economic growth in the past and economic growth in thefuture, rational, sophisticated industrial structure will enable resources to be optimize the configuration, so as to promote rapid economic growth; Economic growth will raise the level of per capita income, thereby causing changes in demand, ultimately drive the economic structure and industrial structure changes. Shaanxi, as the western province, plays a important role in pulling the western and central and eastern parts of the economy, the current research about changes in the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province relationship are qualitative analysis, lack of quantitative analysis. Therefore, to study relationship between the changes in industrial structure in Shaanxi Province and the economic growth has a very important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, the industrial structure and its relationship with economic growth based on relevant theoretical synthesis, using large amounts of data, from the three changes in industrial structure, changes in industrial efficiency, correlation analysis at three levels of the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province to carry out the dynamic analysis and have found a third of the contradictory existence of the internal structure as a basis for the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure in time. At the same time, select the primary industry of the total employees in the proportion of employees, the primary industry output value accounted for the proportion of GDP and gross domestic product index for the study variables, using Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test, to verify the relationship between economic growth and the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province. Finally, select the Shaanxi first, second and third industries, sub-sector output and GDP for the study variables, using multiple regression analysis, to draw the three sub-sectors of industry and its contribution to economic growth, the growth of flexibility. Through empirical research it is found the following conclusions: the industrial structure changes of Shaanxi Granger causes the economic growth economic while the economic growth has no significant impact on industrial structure, the secondary industry makes a significant contribution to economic growth. On the basis of the above-mentioned study, from agriculture, secondary industry and tertiary industry specific to structural adjustment measures, such as through the industrialization of agriculture to transfer rural surplus labor force, to raise the industrialization level by technological innovation and to develop new services.更多还原