【作者】 朱闪闪；

【导师】 赵言文；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,全球变化研究蓬勃兴起,土地利用变化驱动及可持续利用评价研究作为全球变化研究的一个重要内容,越来越受到重视和关注。耕地资源作为生产性土地,是农业生产乃至国民经济可持续发展的基础资源,耕地资源可持续利用评价研究为有效利用和保护耕地提供依据。浙江省是我国经济最为发达的省份之一,随着工业化和城镇化的发展,区域内土地利用结构在时间和空间上发生着重大的变化,其中以耕地的减少和建设用地的增加最为明显。因此,本论文基于土地变更资料及社会经济数据,分析了浙江省土地利用时空变化、耕地利用变化及驱动因素。在此基础上,构建指标体系,对浙江省耕地资源可持续利用进行评价分析。本论文研究的主要结论有:1、土地利用现状特点:浙江省土地资源总量少,2006年,人均土地资源量仅为0.228ha/人,不到全国水平的1/3。人均土地面积空间分布不均衡,最多的丽水为0.69ha/人,最少的为嘉兴,仅0.12 ha/人。2、土地利用变化分析:1996-2004年,浙江省土地利用时空变化主要体现在农业用地中的耕地、园地、其他农用地及未利用地等土地利用类型逐年减少。浙江省土地利用空间结构发生较大变化,且存在明显的地域差异,以宁波土地利用结构变化最大,接下来是嘉兴和湖州。据浙江省土地综合利用程度变化分析:1996年全省土地利用综合指数为232.13,2004年全省土地利用综合指数为234.18。在研究时段内,整个浙江省土地利用程度变化率R＞0,说明浙江省土地利用正处于发展时期。3、耕地利用现状及变化分析:2006年浙江省耕地面积为1594.43kha,占全国耕地面积的1.23%。人均耕地面积少,仅为0.034ha,不及全国人均耕地面积的1/4。从空间上看,嘉兴市的耕地面积最大,为212.31kha,占全省耕地面积的13.32%,舟山市耕地面积最少,为16.61kha,占全省耕地面积的1.04%。1978-2006年间浙江省耕地面积曾下降趋势,耕地面积净减少228.6kha,耕地变化大至可以分为两个阶段,第一个阶段,1978-1996年变化比较快,1996-2006年开始缓和下来。4、耕地资源可持续利用变化驱动因素:依据相关原则,建立指标体系,采用SPSS13.0统计软件进行相关分析与主成分分析。根据主成分载荷,选取的18个因子可以被归为四类,即人口增长、经济发展、城市化与工业化、农业发展等,通过以上分析可以得出,这四个因素是浙江省耕地利用变化的社会经济主导因素。5、耕地资源可持续利用评价研究:从生产性、稳定性、保护性、经济可行性和社会稳定性五个准则层,选取37个一级指标,构建浙江省土地利用可持续评价指标体系。采用AHP的方法,赋予各个层次指标权重,计算得出浙江省耕地资源可持续利用综合水平,1996年为61.77,发展到2006年为77.88,实现了由可持续利用准备阶段到初步可持续利用阶段的过渡,成绩是值得肯定的,但是相对于达到≥90的可持续阶段,还有一定的距离,还有较大的发展空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recent years, global change research has mushroomed. As an important part of the research, the land-use change-driven and sustainable evaluation have won more and more emphasis. Cultivated land resources is productive resources, which is basic resources of agricultural production and sustainable development of the national economy. Evaluating the sustainability of cultivated land resources is basis for the using and protection of cultivated land resources.Zhejiang is one of the most developed provinces of China, whose regional land use structure is changing significantly in time and space with the development of industrialization and urbanization. The most obvious change is the reduction of cultivated land and the increase of construction land. Therefore, based on land redistributed data and socio-economic data, this article analyzed the temporal and spatial changes in land use, the change of cultivated land use and the driver factors in Zhejiang Province, established indices system, and evaluated the cultivated land sustainable utilization of Zhejiang was. The main obtained conclusions are as follows:1. Present land-use characteristics: total land resources of Zhejiang is less, land resources per capita is only 0.23 ha / person, less than 1/3 of the national average in 2006. The per capita area of land distribution is imbalances in space, and the most is 0.69 ha / person in Lishui, while the least is only 0.12 ha / person in Jiaxing.2. Land-use change: during the period of 1996-2004, the time and space change of land use in Zhejiang Province mainly embodied in land-use types decreasing year by year, including agricultural cultivated land, garden, other agricultural land and unused land and other land use types etc. Zhejiang land-use changed largely in space structure, and presented obvious geographical differences. The greatest change lies in Ningbo, followed by Jiaxing and Huzhou. The land-use composite index of whole province was 232.13 in 1996 and 234.18 in 2004. During the study period, the change rate R of land-use extent in Zhejiang was above aero, showing that the land use of Zhejiang Province is in under development.3. The change and status of cultivated use: the cultivated land area of Zhejiang Province was 1594.43kha in 2006, occupying 1.23 percent of the country’s total cultivated land area. But the per capita cultivated land is small, only 0.034 ha, less than 1/4 of the national per capita cultivated land area. The largest area of cultivated land in Jiaxing city was 212.31kha, account for 13.32 percent of the cultivated land of the whole province, as the smallest in Zhoushan city was 16.61kha, account for 1.04 percent of the cultivated land of whole province. From year 1978 to 2006, the cultivated land of Zhejiang province once showed downtrend, with a net decrease of 228.6 kha. The change of cultivated land can be divided into two stages: the change was fast from 1978 to 1996 and the change alleviated from 1996 to 2006.4. Analysis of change-driven factors for the sustainable use of cultivated land resources: the indices system was established according to the relevant principles, and studied by correlation analysis and principal component analysis with SPSS13.0 statistical analysis software. According to principal component loads, the 18 factors selected can be classified as four categories: the population growth, economic development, urbanization and industrialization, agricultural development, etc. It can be drawn through the above analysis that the four factors are the dominant socio-economic factors of the land-use change in Zhejiang Province.5. Sustainable evaluation of cultivated land use: sustainable evaluation system for land use in Zhejiang Province was builded with the 37 first grade indexes selected from five criteria composed of the production, stability, protection, economic viability and social stability. With the method of AHP, targeting weight of all levels, the integrated level of sustainable cultivated land use was calculated as 61.77 in 1996 and 77.88 in 2006, which indicated realized transition from the preparatory phase to the initial phase of the sustainable use. The results should be gratified, but there is still a certain distance and a larger space for development, compared with achieve sustainable stage above 90.更多还原