【作者】 凤蔚；

【导师】 李佩成； 田廷山；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 河北省石家庄地区是华北平原较典型的地下水资源超采地区。二十世纪六十年代以来作为河北平原的工农业发展中心,该地区工农业规模迅速发展,其地表水资源量有限,加之降水较少而蒸发强烈,水资源量不足以满足该地区的发展需求。于是人们通过开采地下水来弥补其不足,导致地下水的开采量大大超过了补给量。在补排失去平衡的情况下,该地区地下水水位急速下降,在区域内形成了地下水水位降落漏斗,而且在近几十年中地下水水位降落漏斗的规模逐渐变大,并伴有水污染、地裂缝、塌陷等环境地质问题的出现。本文先搜集了解该地区的水文、水文地质、地质地貌等条件的资料,然后根据这些自然及社会环境情况重点分析石家庄地区的地下水补、径、排条件的变化,从而掌握该地区地下水动态变化的特征。通过对该地区各项地下水动态影响因素的分析,了解地下水动态的变化情况,应用时间序列法做出一个地下水水位动态的预测模型,从而为合理规划开采布局、可持续的开采地下水资源的目的,防止环境地质灾害的出现及加剧提供依据。文中利用地理信息系统(MAPGIS)做图展示了该地区的地下水从1959年到2006年的变化情况,清晰的展现了石家庄地区地下水开采前后地下水流场的变化情况。然后应用Visual Basic(VB)编程语言和数据统计分析软件SPSS软件对石家庄地区地下水动态作了时间序列分析。通过拟合计算可以对石家庄地区的地下水动态的监测频率进行优化,满足对地下水水位动态观测数据的需要;并得出地下水水位动态的时间序列模型,以达到预测的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shijiazhuang area, Hebei Province, is the most typical area of exceed exploitation in North China Plain .Since the 1960s, as the industrial and agricultural development centre in Hebei Plain, the scale of industrial and agricultural of Shijiazhuang areas incresed rapidly, as this area short of surface water resources and the changing of precipitation and evaporation condition, its water resources are insufficient to meet the needs of development. So they have to make up for the shortcomings through exploitation of groundwater, the extraction of groundwater greatly exceedsd the recharge. Under this circumstances , the ground water level rapid decline in this region, then formed a descend funnel, and in the last few decades the scale of the descend funnel is gradually increasing, and companied with such problems as water pollution, cracks, collapse of the environmental geological problems et.This article first collected the information of the hydrology, hydrogeology, geological features, and other conditions in the region, then analysised the change of supplies, flow, and charge conditions of the groundwater in this area according to these natural and social environment, to obtain the the characteristics of the groundwater dynamic changes. , We can get a well understanding of the groundwater dynamic changes through analysised the various factors affecting groundwater dynamic, Then we can make a dynamic forecasting model with the application of the time series , this can help us to achieve a reasonable exploitation and sustainable exploitation of underground water resources, prevent the emergence of environment geological disasters exacerbated.In this artcle we used the Geolonogy Information System software(GIS)to display the changes of exploiting groundwater in this region from 1959 to 2006, these can clearly show the changes of groundwater flow field in Shijiazhuang area. Then we did the time series analysis of groundwater dynamic of Shijiazhuang area with Visual Basic(VB) programming language and SPSS software. Through the calculation and analysis, we can optimize the frequency of monitoring groundwater dynamic, to meet the dynamic observation needs of the groundwater level data, and we can get groundwater dynamic time series model to achieve the purpose of forecasting.更多还原