【作者】 师芙琴；

【导师】 余海宗；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 会计学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年来,我国经济飞速发展,综合国力不断提高。作为经济发展“晴雨表”的股市,本应随之不断上扬,然而我国股市在2002年到2005年却持续低落。在投资者对股市逐渐丧失信心时,我国股市却从2006年底开始不断利好,股市出现了空前的繁荣景象。这种转变让我们重新认识到上市公司价值评估的重要性,随着我国证券市场的不断发展和完善,价值投资越来越受到人们的重视,企业价值评估问题的重要性凸现。如何评估上市公司的真正价值是证券界长期探索的重要课题,也是投资者最为关心的问题。随着EVA理念在企业管理和投资分析中的推广和应用,基于经济增加值(Economic Value Added,以下简称“EVA”)指标的企业价值评估模型应运而生。基于EVA的价值评估模型(以下简称“EVA估价模型”)是由EVA指标和传统的贴现估价模型衍生的又一企业价值评估模型,其从股东财富增长的角度来评估企业价值,它的优点是能够充分利用公司提供的全部公开信息,使评价更加全面,反映的结果更加真实,并且剔除了风险因素的影响,不同风险的企业也因此能在相同的基础上进行比较,体现了公司的内在价值和市场公允价值。加强EVA估价模型的研究,尽快探究其在我国企业的应用方式不仅有利于完善我国的价值评估理论体系,而且有利于提高投资者以及管理者的决策能力,因此,对EVA估价模型的研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。全文共分五章:第一章,EVA估价模型的理论基础。这一章是全文的理论铺垫。本章首先介绍了企业价值的不同形式,对企业价值进行了定位,即:企业价值是以企业的内在价值为基础的市场交换价值,其本质是企业未来的持续获利能力,在市场上则表现为公允市场价值;然后对EVA的历史演进、EVA的定义及计算方法进行介绍。作为承上启下部分,又分析了从EVA到EVA估价模型建立的思路,为下一章具体介绍EVA估价模型奠定基础。第二章,基于EVA的企业价值评估模型。本章首先介绍了基于EVA的企业价值评估工作的主要步骤,主要包括企业经营状况分析、企业发展情况分析、EVA变化情况预测以及企业价值评估四个步骤。在了解模型具体实施步骤后,开始详细介绍EVA估价模型,包括EVA估价模型的假设条件、两种常见的EVA估价模型形式,即EVA固定增长估价模型、EVA两阶段增长估价模型。在介绍EVA两阶段增长模型时,进一步对两种不同永续期起点下计算结果的异同进行分析了演绎。计算结果显示,在企业第n年增长率与永续期增长率相同的情况下,无论是将第n年或者第n+1年作为计算企业价值的永续期起点,其计算结果都完全一致。第三章,EVA估价模型与现存主要的价值评估模型的对比分析。本章从国际和国内两个角度对EVA估价模型与其他价值评估模型进行对比分析。国外现存的主要价值评估模型包括:折现现金流量估价模型、相对估价模型及期权估价模型;我国现存的主要价值评估模型包括:资产价值基础法模型、收益法/市盈率法模型及经济利润法模型。在对国内外价值评估的主要模型一一介绍之后,将EVA估价模型与我国目前常见的三种价值评估模型进行了对比,得出我国现存的三种主要估价模型的缺点和不足,以及EVA估价模型的主要优点。第四章,基于EVA上市公司价值评估模型的应用。本文的前三章从理论上研究了EVA估价模型,本章利用前三章的研究结论并结合实际探究了EVA估价模型的应用。本章首先根据EVA价值评估模型的工作的四个步骤:企业经营状况分析、企业发展情况分析、EVA变化情况预测和企业价值评价,以青岛海尔股份有限公司为例,说明了EVA估价模型在企业价值评估中的具体运用;然后又进一步指出EVA价值评估模型在实务中的应用分类。第五章,对基于EVA中国上市公司价值评估模型的思考。任何一个模型在理论和实践中都会存在各种各样的问题,EVA估价模型在理论上虽然近乎完美,但是在实际操作中仍然会遇到各种障碍。本章首先对该模型的缺点和不足进行分析,然后针对EVA在我国水土不服的状况该如何进行本土化改造提出改进思路。在此基础上,客观分析EVA估价模型在我国的应用前景。本文以EVA指标为主线,利用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法探讨了EVA估价模型的构建及其应用的相关问题,体现了规范研究与实证研究、理论与实际的高度结合,因此,论证比较全面,结果的有效性及可靠性较高。本文在观点及内容方面的创新如下:第一,在对企业价值不同形式分析的基础上给企业价值进行了定位,指出企业价值是以企业的内在价值为基础的市场交换价值,其本质是企业未来的持续获利能力,在市场上则表现为公允市场价值,并且据此对企业价值评估进行了定义。第二,根据企业未来EVA的分布情况提出了EVA价值评估模型的几种特殊形式:EVA零增长模型、EVA固定增长模型及EVA两阶段增长模型,并着重对EVA两阶段增长模型的应用形式进行了完整的数理推导。第三,提出了利用EVA价值评估模型进行企业估价的四个步骤:企业经营状况分析、企业发展情况分析、EVA变化情况预测及企业价值评估,并且对每个步骤应该关注的问题进行了阐述。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, our country’s economy has been rapidly developed and the overall national strength has been continually enhanced. Stock market, as the economic development’s‘barometer’, should be consistently high. But China’s stock market in 2002 to 2005 continued to decline. When investors gradually lose confidence to the stock market, China’s stock market suddenly begins to beef up by the end of 2006. The stock market has an unprecedented flourishing. This change makes us realize that we need to re-assess the value of listed corporation. With the continuous development and improvement of the securities market, value investment is attracting increasing attention and the importance of enterprise value evaluation is highlighting. How to assess the real value of listed corporation is the important long-term issue for the security industry to explore. It is also the utmost concern issue to investors.With the promotion and application of EVA concept in business management and investment analysis, the model to assess the value of the enterprises based on the indicators of Economic Value Added (Economic Value Added, hereinafter EVA) came into being. EVA evaluation model derived from the EVA indicator and traditional enterprise value assessment model. It assesses the value of enterprises in the perspective of shareholders’wealth growth. The advantage is that it is able to fully utilize all disclose information provided by the companies. So it is a more comprehensive evaluation model and the results reflect more real. It will remove the risk factors so that enterprises with different risks can be compared on the same basis. It reflects the company’s intrinsic value and fair market value. Strengthening the research on EVA valuation model as soon as possible and looking into the application form of Chinese enterprises will not only help improving our value assessment theoretical system, but also helping to improve the decision-making ability of investors and managers. Therefore, the research on EVA evaluation model has great theoretical and practical significance. The full issue is divided into five chapters:Chapter 1: EVA valuation model’s Theory basis. This chapter is the theory foreshadowing of the full text. In the first, this chapter introduces the different forms of enterprises’value and this paper’s value location. Namely, enterprise value is the market exchange value based on the intrinsic value. Its essence is the enterprise’s sustained profitability in the future while performing in the market as fair market value. Then the chapter introduces EVA’s history and the definition of EVA and the calculation method. As part of the cause, it also analyses the ideas from EVA to EVA valuation model. It lays the foundation of the next chapter for EVA valuation model.Chapter 2: EVA evaluation model. This chapter introduces the EVA evaluation model’s major working steps. It includes four steps, which are enterprise performance analysis, enterprise development situation analysis, EVA forecasting and enterprise value assessment. Understanding the model’s specific steps, we began detailed EVA evaluation model, including EVA evaluation model’s assumptions and the two common forms of EVA valuation model, namely fixed growth EVA evaluation model and the two-stage growth EVA evaluation model. Then I made further research on the similarities and differences in interpretation the two different starting points for the calculation results. The results showed that if the nth year growth ratio is the same as the follow-up period growth, whether n or n +1 as the follow-up period starting point, its results are fully consistent.Chapter 3: Comparative analysis between EVA evaluation model and other existing major evaluation model. This chapter will compare them from the perspective of international and domestic. The main existing foreign evaluation model include discounted cash flow evaluation, relative evaluation and options evaluation model. The main existing domestic evaluation model include asset value based method model, receipts or earnings ratio method model and economic profit method model. After introducing these main domestic and international evaluation models, it will make a comparison between EVA evaluation model and our country’s three common evaluation models. It will come out the three main existing models’shortcomings and deficiencies, as well as EVA evaluation model’s advantages.Chapter 4: EVA evaluation model’s applications in listed corporation in China. The last three chapters theoretically studied EVA evaluation model. This chapter used the last three chapters’conclusions. Then explore the EVA evaluation model’s application in Qingdao Haier Co., Ltd. as an example. It will introduce it according to EVA evaluation model’s four working steps: enterprise performance analysis, enterprise development situation analysis, EVA forecasting and enterprise evaluation. Then it further pointed out the other applications of the EVA evaluation model’s application in practice.Chapter 5: The pondering of the application of EVA evaluation model. Any model in theory and in practice will have a wide range of issues. Despite EVA evaluation model is nearly perfect in theory, it will still face a variety of obstacles in actual operation. The paper made an analysis of the shortcomings and deficiencies in the first. And then it will point out how to improve its application under the situation of China’s anticipation. On this basis, the chapter will give an objective analysis of EVA evaluation model’s application in the future.EVA indicator is the main line of this paper. This paper used the method of standardized research and empirical research’s combining on EVA evaluation model and its application construction. It embodied the combination of standardized research and empirical research. It also embodied the combination of theory and practice. Therefore, the paper’s demonstration will be comprehensive and the validity and reliability of the results will be higher. The innovations based on the views and contents are as follows:First, the paper make clear the location of corporation value on the basis of the analysis of the different value forms. It pointed out that corporation value is the market exchange value based on the intrinsic value of the corporation. Its essence is the corporation’s sustained profitability in the future. It performed as the fair market value. And thus make the definition of the corporation evaluation.Secondly, the paper proposed several special forms of EVA evaluation model according to the distribution of EVA in corporation in the future. They are EVA zero-growth model, EVA fixed-growth model and EVA two-stage growth model. Then it focused on two-stage growth model’s application forms and made a complete mathematical derivation.Thirdly, it proposed the four steps of EVA evaluation model: enterprise performance analysis, enterprise development situation analysis, EVA forecasting and the corporation evaluation. It also explained the problems that should be concerned in each step.更多还原