【作者】 钱小兵；

【导师】 章和杰；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工业大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 本文通过对中国双顺差现象的透析,阐述了中国国际收支双顺差产生的原因:是中国经济发展的特定阶段和特定经济结构。双顺差对中国经济有着一定的积极意义,但另一方面却意味着大量实际资源的输出,作为一个发展中国家,这是缺乏理性的,制约了中国经济的长期可持续发展。双顺差对中国经济的不良影响主要体现在:削弱货币政策自主性,导致国内流动性过剩,不利于民族产业发展,同时造成人民币升值预期,吸引大量热钱流入中国,加大外汇储备管理的难度和机会成本等。本文运用图表和实证分析等定量方式对每一个论点进行论述,重点分析了中国流动性过剩和隐藏在双顺差下热钱:将流动性过剩产生的原因分为内部原因和外部原因,实证结论为中国流动性过剩主要是由于双顺差导致外汇储备激增所引起的;把热钱纳入双顺差框架进行分析,隐藏在双顺差下的热钱在中国房地产市场、股票市场、利率市场和汇率市场上来回游走获取利润,其影响力已经开始凸现出来。因此,要慎重对待双顺差问题,针对以上问题本文提出如下建议:丰富金融投资工具,打破融资约束;调整涉外经济政策,推行平衡贸易战略;建立科学经济发展观,转变经济增长方式;提高财政支出,转变政府职能;加强货币政策协调,合理引导外汇资金流向;积极扩大对外直接投资,提高储备使用效益;加强国际间政策协调,推进人民币有序渐进升值。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims to explain that the reason for china’s double surplus is resulted from special phase and economic structure during the process of development of china’s economy. Double surplus does play a positive role in china’s development, but it requires export of massive resources. This is not rational enough for china as a developing country because it will pose hindrance to china’s sustainable development.There are some negative effects of continuing double surplus for china’s economy: it weakens the independence of china’s monetary policy, resulting in liquidity surplus, further more interfering the development of national industry, meanwhile it creates the expectation for RMB’s appreciation which contributes to the massive inflow of hot money and increases the difficulty and opportunity cost of management of foreign exchange reserve. This paper discussed every issue by quantitative analyzing with tables and pictures, it is mainly about the liquidity surplus and hot money under the cover of double surplus: We attributed the china’s liquidity surplus to internal reasons and external reasons, our conclusion is that the main reason for china’s liquidity surplus is double surplus caused by surge in foreign reserve; We considered hot money as a part of surplus to analyze and found that hot money under cover double surplus chased profit in china’s real estate’s market, stock market ,interest market and foreign exchange market whose effects are now emerging.So cautious consideration and treatment is needed on this issue. This paper gives the following solutions to the problems mentioned above: firstly, we should enrich tools of investment and loosen the restrictions on financing; secondly, Together with establishing scientific view of development and transferring our ways for economic growth ,we should adjust our foreign economy policies and implement strategy of trade balance; Thirdly, we should change the function of our government and increase the financial expenditure; besides, we should strengthen the coordination of monetary policies and properly guide the flow of foreign capital; lastly, we should increase the foreign direct investment actively and rise the return on investment of foreign exchange reserve, meanwhile, we should strengthen the coordination of policies between countries to drive the appreciation of RMB step by step.更多还原