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基于风险分析的工程索赔管理研究

Reseach of Engineering Claims Management Based on Risk Analysis

【作者】 庞云婷

【导师】 刘志杰;

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 , 土木工程管理, 2008, 硕士

【摘要】 工程索赔是一门理论性和实践性都非常强的学问,它是融社会科学知识、自然科学知识为一体,涉及到工程施工技术、合同法律、贸易财会以及公共关系等众多专业学科知识。我国的工程索赔实践起步于20世纪80年代,比较典型的案例出现在云南鲁布革引水发电工程。该工程首次采用国际工程管理模式,工程索赔的概念也从此进入我国。在经历了20多年的发展后,工程索赔管理的理念被国内工程界接受,并在实际工作中得以应用,成功的事例也有所出现。特别是近几年,国内在工程索赔管理方面的研究有了较大进展,不论是定性研究还是定量研究,都取得了一些成绩,但是研究主要集中在承包商向业主索赔方面,而业主向承包商的索赔一般都被描述成反索赔,依附于承包商向业主的索赔。本文站在业主的立场上,在系统分析和总结目前国内外学者在这一领域研究工作的基础上,对工程项目索赔管理问题进行了系统研究:1、基于对现有工程索赔管理的理论和方法的认识上,分析了研究业主索赔管理的现实意义。2、对业主与承包商在索赔管理中的不同点进行了分析比较,明确了业主索赔管理的重心是预防索赔和反驳承包商的索赔。分析了索赔管理与合同管理、风险管理之间的关系。3、根据工程索赔风险的相关概念和内容,具体指出了在施工阶段索赔诱因有哪些。4、采用模糊神经网络理论,建立了索赔风险预测模型,并对模型进行了模拟与仿真。

【Abstract】 The project claim is an emerging discipline specialty,it is melts the social sciences,the natural sciences is a body edge discipline,involves to the project construction technology, the contract law,the trade finance and accounting as well as the public relation and so on the multitudinous specialized discipline knowledge.Our country’s project claim is in 1980’s,Yunan Lu Buge pilots in the electricity generation project to appear, this project uses the international project management country. After the project claim has experienced more than 20 years development,the domestic project claim supervisory work has obtained the considerable development,has obtained a more remarkable result. In recent years, claims management in the domestic research has made great progress, whether quantitative or qualitative research studies have made some achievements, but the study focused on claiming to the owners. The claims from owners are generally described as counter-claim.Based on the studies conducted by foreign scholars, this paper summarizes a systematic study about Engineering Claims Management.1. Based on the existing management theory and methods of the project claim , this paper analyzes practical significance of claim management of the owners.2. Analyze and compare differences about owners and contractors in claims management. The claim management of owners focuses on preventing and refuting the claims of the contractors’ claims. Analyze the relationship of claim management and contract management, risk management.3. According to the risk of claims, this paper points out the incentives which happened in claim.4. Established the identification model of claim risk factor utilizing the theory of Fuzzy and Nerve network and imitate and emulate for the possibility of risk factor.

【关键词】 业主索赔管理风险分析模糊数学
【Key words】 OwnerClaims ManagementRisk AnalysisFuzzy Mathematics
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