【作者】 丁泉；

【导师】 欧阳安蛟； 张兴平；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 人文地理学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用结构是指区域内各类土地利用之间在数量上的对比关系和空间上的相互位置关系形成的格局,以及权属上的所属关系的总和。本文以临海市1997—2004年的土地变更数据及2005年更新调查数据为基础,采用多样性指数、区位指数、洛伦茨曲线等分析方法对其现状土地利用结构进行了分析;通过变化贡献率分析、熵变分析及土地利用集约程度变化分析对土地利用结构的时空变化进行了研究;运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对临海市2010年和2020年土地利用结构进行了预测,并将预测结果与基于国民经济各部门需求汇总的预测结果进行了比较,分析评价了两种预测方法的优缺点。研究结果表明:临海市现状土地资源类型多样、具有区位意义的农用地类型较为齐全、但土地利用类型组合数小、土地利用地域分异明显、土地集约利用水平不高。在未来几年中,临海市耕地、园地等农用地将进一步减少,建设用地将不断增加,多样性指数经历先增后减的变化,信息熵保持不断上涨的态势,土地利用结构将进一步向无序化发展,而土地组合类型保持林地—耕地—未利用地不变。应用灰色模型预测土地利用结构变化,在稳定的土地利用政策下,预测结果基本能反映土地利用结构变化的速度与趋势,且计算较为简单,所需基础数据较少。而基于国民经济各部门需求的预测虽然需要大量的数据与资料,但对建设用地需求考虑较为充分,能够在满足既定的规划条件下统筹各业用地,不过其对远期用地估计不足。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use structure refers to all types of land use within the region in the contrast of number, relationship in space and in the pattern of formation and ownership. Status quo land use structure of Linhai was analyzed through diversity index, location index and Lorrenz curve analysis methods; land use structure change of Linhai was analyzed through contribution rates Analysis, entropy change Analysis and land use intensive analysis; land use structure of Linhai City in 2010 and 2020 has also been forecasted through grey GM (1,1) model all based on land use structure data 1997-2004, Linhai City, and its 2005 update data. Compare forcasted results of grey GM (1,1) with Sector demand method’s to show their advatages and disadvantages.The results show that:Linhai City has a variaty of land use types, with a great number of regional significance agricultural land,but lack in land-use combination, Obviously geographical diversity land-use and low intensive use of land. In the next few years, farmland, park, and other agricultural land will be further reduced while construction sites will continue to increase. Diversity index would experience a change of rising fist then going to a fall; land-use structure will further in a development of the disorder; but combination of types of land to maintain forest land -land - virgin land. Gray forecast model could be made good use of by reflecting changes in land use structure and the speed of trends in a stable land-use policy. It’s easy to apply and based on data for less. Sector demand method requires a large amount of data and information, but can fufilled the demand for construction land, to meet the conditions established to co-ordinate all the land. Yet, long-term land need is always underestimated in this model.更多还原