人民币汇率变动对台商在大陆投资的影响

【作者】 陈尧诗；

【导师】 陆前进；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 影响厂商投资决策因素的研究,向来是探讨投资理论的焦点。加速理论、新古典投资模型、Q理论及加入现金流量的投资理论,分别主张投资决定于厂商产出水平、使用者成本、Q值和现金流量。然而,在全球化趋势下,国际贸易占经济活动的比重快速增加,汇率变动对厂商利润的影响力也日益增加,再加上台湾的许多投资收益来自进口;因此本研究的目的是在投资理论的架构下检验汇率变动是否影响台商在大陆的投资。而且台商赴大陆投资件数、投资金额的变化,其背后反映出不同考量因素与投资动机,而在这段期间,大陆的外资政策与两岸关系也并非处于平稳状态,对于台商投资多所干扰,因此增添分析上的复杂性。具体而言,本文的研究目的可归纳如下:(一)探讨台商赴大陆投资动机、金额、区位选择等相关研究文献,对大陆台商投资概况进行分析。(二)在投资理论的架构下检验汇率变动是否影响台商在大陆的投资。(三)利用资料与文献汇整配合实证研究结果的分析,希望对于台商在大陆投资,甚至对于大陆布局策略等的影响与冲击,能有所掌握。以了解台商对于人民币汇率变动的可能冲击与可能容忍度程度,及可能的对应方式与策略。(四)除可明了人民币汇率变动可能对台商在大陆投资的影响外,并做为经济相关政策的参考,以及厂商对于两岸商机、市场情报收集,或投资规划、规避风险与投资决策参考。最后根据Hooper and Kohangen(1979),汇率变动幅度增加影响国际贸易的商品相对价格随之波动。此外,由汇率变动所造成的风险更进一步导致厂商减少贸易量,当厂商收入来源多依赖国际贸易时,这将直接影响厂商收入及利润。而汇率变动对于收入的冲击间接影响投资。由实证结果得知汇率变动幅度增加将使厂商投资减少,以及汇率上涨(下跌)将使投资增加(减少)的事实的确存在于大陆制造业台商之中。尤其是对于外销比例高的产业台商而言,因为面临较高的汇率风险,所以厂商的决策将对汇率变动的敏感度较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Researching and investigating factors that impact investment decisions of manufacturers has been a major subject of investment theories. Theories such as accelerate theories, current classic investment model, Q theories and cash flow investment theories, propose that output level, overall cost efficiency, Q value and cash generating ability respectively are the decisive figures that impact manufacturers’ final investment decision. On the other hand, under globalization, international trade, growing at a rapid rate, is increasing its importance and contribution to overall economic activities. As a result, exchange rate fluctuation is becoming key factors that affect manufacturers’ profit margin. Taiwan is a typical case of which Taiwanese investors obtain a substantial portion of their investment income from import. Therefore the purpose of this research is to examine the impacts of exchange rate fluctuation have on Taiwanese investors’ investment decisions toward China’s mainland based on investment theories.For Taiwanese investors, the changes in the number of investment projects and amount invested have reflected a variety of issues and investment incentives. In this time period, China’s mainland’s foreign capital investment policy and political relationship with Taiwan are instable either, which interfered and negatively impacted Taiwanese investors’ investment decisions. These influential factors further complicate the analysis.The main purpose of this research paper can be concluded into the followings.(A) Study research papers regarding motives, investment volume, market niche choices and etc. of Taiwanese investors who made investments in China’s mainland. Analyze their current investment status and conditions in China’s mainland.(B) Examine impacts of exchange rate fluctuation have on Taiwanese investors’ investment decisions toward China’s mainland based on investment theories.(C) Compile research data, evidence, studies and empirical research findings to look for influences China’s mainland’s strategic layout exert on Taiwanese investors’ investment pattern. Extend and relate the finds to possible impact of RMB appreciation on Taiwanese investors’ investment behavior, their corresponding degree of tolerance to RMB appreciation and actions/strategies in response to the appreciation.(D) In addition to the understanding of RMB appreciation’s impact on Taiwanese investors, serve as a reference for related economic policy and for manufacturers who are looking for business opportunities in China’s mainland, collecting market data, hedging business risk, and making investment plans or decisions.Finally according to Hooper and Kohangen (1979), exchange rate fluctuations are also reflected in relative prices of commodities in international trade. Currency risk further decreases international trade volume. For manufacturers who rely heavily on export or import, currency risk would have a more material impact on their sales and thus income. The negative shock of decrease in income or return would distract many of the potential foreign investments away. From empirical evidence, an increase in degree of currency fluctuation would result in less investment, and this relationship, an appreciation (depreciation) resulting in an increase (decrease) in amount of investment, has been proven to exist among the Taiwanese manufacturers investing in China’s mainland. This is especially the case for manufacturers whose sales were largely exports. They are more widely exposed to currency risk, thus their decision making is more sensitive and responsive to currency fluctuations.更多还原