关于易逝品电子市场交易时间的研究：何时进入市场？

【作者】 严婷婷；

【导师】 李宏余；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 对于市场需求波动大、采购提前期长、销售期短的产品来说,电子二级市场能为零售商提供在销售季中通过与其他零售商交易而来的第二次补货机会。何时进行第二次补货是一个复杂的决策,需要权衡市场需求预测准确性、在补货前后的缺货和平均单位采购成本。在本文中作者用一个两阶段报童库存模型来研究在不同市场和产品的情景组合下的最有补获时间。我们发现最优交易时间对于二级市场即时价格函数、零售/批发价格比、低估预测误差和信息学习速度非常敏感,但是需求波动性和高估误差对于最优补货时间却没有太大影响。交易过早或者过晚在任何请景下都不是一个好决策。二级市场交易的总价值可以二分为信息价值和及期价格购买价值。我们对期初信息质量、需求波动性和零售/批发价格比对其中的信息价值进行了研究。另外,无论零售商何时交易,期初该零售商从上游供应商的定货始终要比没有二级市场交易的时候要少。一个有趣的发现是当库存水平很低的时候,即时补货并不是如传统的(未考虑预测信息质量)库存模型所推荐的那样是最优的决策。相反如果期初信息质量很差,更好的决策是:当库存水平低的时候不立即补货,而是延迟补货以得到更好的预测信息。这样虽然是发生了短期的缺货,但是从总体来看,由于更加准确的预测所带来的利益将超过短期的缺货成本。最后我们研究了二级市场交易不完美性和可替代性对于最优交易时间的影响。本文的理论贡献在于首次研究易逝品二级市场最优交易时间以及各种市场和产品特性对于最优交易时间的影响。本文的实际应用价值在于可以用于指导易逝品电子市场交易时间和定货策略,并且本文的结论可以延伸应用于多种库存补货决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 In volatile, long-lead time and short selling-season markets, a secondary market enables retailers to update their inventory during the selling season. The decision of when to update involves complicated trade-offs between forecast accuracy, the likelihood of lost sales before/after the trading time and average purchasing cost. We use a two-stage inventory replenishment model to identify the optimal trading time across different scenarios. We find that the optimal trading time is sensitive to spot price pattern, the ratio of retail to wholesale prices, underestimate error and learning speed, but not to demand volatility and overestimate error. Trading too early or too late is never a good decision. The total value of secondary market trading can be dichotomized into value of information learning and value of spot price purchases. Impacts of prior information quality, demand volatility and retail margin on the value of information is discussed. No matter when the trading time is, the trader always buys less from upstream suppliers than he does without secondary markets. One interesting implication is that immediate replenishment when inventory level is low is not always the optimal solution. If information is too bad, it is better to wait, incurring short-term stock-out, to get better information to earn long-term gain. We also studied the impacts of imperfect secondary markets trading and substitutability of secondary markets trading on the optimal trading time and profits.更多还原