【作者】 邹文玉；

【导师】 龚唯平；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 周期性的经济波动会直接影响到各种产业的发展,并使其出现同样的周期性波动。国内外房地产发展的历史证明,由于房地产的发展要受到宏观经济发展、人口、政治、社会、文化、法律制度等多种因素的影响,所以也会表现出周期性波动的变化,出现高峰期和低谷期。正视房地产的周期波动,分析和研究决定房地产周期波动的内外因素,探讨房地产周期波动的传导机制,提出应对周期波动的政策和对策,将对我国房地产持续、健康、稳定地发展产生重大而深远的影响。鉴于此,本文选取近年来全国房地产发展中具有代表性的广州房地产市场进行了深入研究,以广州房地产景气循环为主线对房地产周期波动的存在性,房地产周期波动的形成机制,房地产周期波动的内、外生因素,房地产周期的划分进行了描述及实证研究。伴随房地产景气循环的过程中,房地产泡沫是人多地少的国家处在经济快速发展阶段,容易出现的一种经济现象。一旦发生,将给一个国家的经济和社会生活带来严重的后果。我国房地产业已进入快速发展时期,防范警惕房地产泡沫的发生具有重要意义。本文在学习借鉴国内外房地产泡沫理论研究成果的基础上,引用最新的统计数据,运用定性与定量相结合的方法,对广州1990-2006年房地产业运行中是否存在泡沫进行分析评判。最后,文章针对广州房地产市场景气循环以及泡沫的实证结论,提出了如何有效化解和防范房地产泡沫的手段与政策措施,指出政府应该综合运用金融、税收、行政等手段调控广州房地产市场以防止泡沫进一步膨胀。此项研究对促进广州市房地产业与社会经济协调发展,保持广州经济持续健康发展有重要意义,对其他地域也有一定的借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fluctuation of Economic can influence the development of other industries, leading the same fluctuation in them. The historic development of real estate industry both in domestic and foreign have demonstrate that as Marco-economics, population, polices, social, culture law plays important role in the development of real estate industry ,they gives arise to the periodic fluctuation. It is of more important practical significance to realize the fluctuation in the real estate industry, analyze the internal factor and external impacts giving arise to the periodic fluctuation of real estate industry and raise countermeasures to it.This dissertation selects Guangzhou where the real estate market is typical as object to research real estate industry. To analyze the topic, we cannot only testify the existence of real estate cycle, analyze its mechanism, but also study the main endogenous and exogenous factors that influence the cycle of real estate.Property bubble is a phenomenon that occurs in a country, which has insufficient lands to the people. It will bring serious result to economic and society if it occurs. As our country’s real estate industry is in the stage of rapid development, property bubble has attracted more attention than ever. Based on the research achievement of current domestic and foreign real estate bubble, this paper analyzes the existence of real estate bubble of Guangzhou with the way of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis methods by analyzing the up-to date data between 1990～2006.Finally, some counter-measures finance, revenue, administration etc, that government should take are put forward, so that the bubbles cannot swell more. It is significative for this article to make the real estate industry develop more healthily.更多还原