【作者】 阿孜古丽·玉素甫；

【导师】 祁永安； 闵文义；

【作者基本信息】 西北民族大学 ， 中国少数民族经济， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 棉花是我国重要经济作物,其产业关联度大。中国目前已经成为世界上最大的棉花生产国和消费国,棉花年产量和消费量均占世界总产量和总消费量的四分之一左右。新疆是我国最古老的棉区之一,有悠久的植棉历史,全疆86个县(市)中有63个县(市)常年植棉。据统计,2006年棉花(皮棉)产值占农业总产值的35.7%,占种植业产值的50.88%,占GDP的13.1%;全疆农牧民人均纯收入中20%来自棉花。目前新疆棉花在面积、总产、单产、调出量、商品出口率、人均占有量六个方面位列全国第一。改革开放以来,我国棉花生产一直处于明显的波动之中,其年际波动幅度之大,远远超出了正常的范围。波动(Fluctuation)原来是一个物理学名词,指物体有规律上下反复运动的过程。波动被引入到经济学中时泛指经济变量在时间序列上的变动过程或状态,在本研究中,棉花生产波动主要指主要年际棉花总产量的实际变化偏离正常的长期趋势产量。与全国的棉花生产形势一样,新疆的棉花生产也一直处于明显的波动之中。棉花价格暴涨暴跌,棉花总产量大起大落,卖棉难和买棉难交替出现。棉花价格、产量、供求关系的巨大波动,对棉花的生产者、经营者、消费者和国家财政都带来了不利的影响[1]。本文运用剩余法对新疆1985—2006年的棉花总产量进行了分析,得出1987—2005年间新疆棉花总产量波动周期的平均长度大约为4年的结论。影响新疆棉花生产的因素除了国家及自治区的棉花政策以外,还受棉花播种面积、受灾面积、农业机械总动力等因素的影响。也就是说,种植规模、气象因子、农业机械化程度是影响新疆棉花生产最主要的因素。因此,稳定新疆棉花生产的政策建议有:⑴建立一个更加开放的棉花流通体制;⑵合理布局棉花生产,适当压缩棉花种植面积,走高产优质低成本之路;⑶大力加强棉花科技投入,提高棉花生产的科技水平;⑷强化棉花市场监管;⑸建立新疆储备棉新机制——预警机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cotton is an important cash crop in China, and the degree of the industrial is deep. At present, China has become the world’s largest cotton producing and consuming countries, with cotton output and consumption volume accounting for one quarter of the world’s total. Xinjiang is one of China’s most ancient cotton-growing areas, with a long history of the cotton.There are 63 counties (cities) producing in the whole 86 counties (cities) in annual cotton. According to statistics, the 2006 cotton (lint) accounted for 35.7% of the total agricultural output value, accounting for the value of planting 50.88%, accounting for 13.1 per cent of GDP; the whole per capita net income of peasants and herdsmen in 20% from cotton. Xinjiang cotton ranked first in the country in the following areas: total production, yield, transfer volume, merchandise export rate, and per capita consumption.Since the reform and opening up, China’s cotton production has been in obvious fluctuations, the annual fluctuations of the scale, being far beyond the normal scope. Fluctuations used to be a physics term which refers to the process in which objects repeatedly from top to bottom. Fluctuations are introduced to economics, referring to the time series of economic variables in process or state of change. In this study, it mainly refers to fluctuations in cotton production in major cotton production occasion of the actual changes in the long-term trend of deviating from normal yield. As the situation of the whole country’s cotton production, cotton production in Xinjiang has been in a significant fluctuation. Cotton prices rose sharply and plummeted, cotton production ups and downs, and difficulty selling and buying cotton alternated. Fierce fluctuation in the price, production, and supply-demand relationship of cotton has brought negative influence to cotton producers, operators, consumers and the state finance.This paper uses residual method of Xinjiang cotton output in 1985-2006 to analyze, and that between 1987-2005, drawing the conclusion of four years length. Besides the cotton policy of the state and the autonomous region, what affect Xinjiang cotton production are the cotton acreage, the suffered areas, the total machinery motive force, and other factors. In other words, growing scale, meteorological factors, the degree of agricultural mechanization are the most important factors affecting cotton production in Xinjiang. Therefore, proposals for policy on stabilizing Xinjiang cotton production are as follows:⑴establishment of a more open cotton circulation system;⑵rational distribution of cotton production, cotton acreage appropriate compression, and take the road of low-cost and high yield and high quality;⑶vigorously strengthen scientific and technological input of cotton, improve technological level of cotton production;⑷strengthen supervision of the cotton market;⑸establishment of a new mechanism of Xinjiang cotton reserves - early-warning mechanism.更多还原