【作者】 刘冬；

【导师】 严志宇；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 环境科学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国际贸易往来的不断扩大,船舶航运业作为世界贸易的重要组成部分,船舶压载水成为传播地理性隔离有害生物的主要途径。压载水取于始发港的近海岸,当地的赤潮生物极易被携入船舱当中,由于入侵生物的一些特性,船舶到达目的港后容易暴发赤潮。赤潮问题正在威胁着人类的健康和生态环境,造成巨大的经济损失。迫切需要建立合理的风险评价体系,应对面临的新挑战,减少压载水引入赤潮生物带来的危害。根据对大连港周围海域12个站点的调查研究,获得了该海域物理和化学因素的相关信息,并且对该海域浮游生物的种类组成和细胞数量进行了研究分析,为下面的评价工作提供了数据来源。本文论述了两方面(压载水引入外来生物和赤潮风险的预测)的风险评价方法及模型,对大连港内船舶压载水引发赤潮的风险进行了研究及评价。首先,根据大连港已有文献资料和调查数据,对压载水引入赤潮生物的风险进行了风险识别,从中找出可能存在的风险。经分析研究后,建立三级的风险评价指标体系(目标层、准则层和指标层),权重值由层次分析法来确定,隶属度由模糊综合评价法来确定。最后,使用评分原则,通过加权求和把船舶压载水引入赤潮生物的风险用数字表示出来,得到压载水引入赤潮生物的风险等级。基于大连港的生态环境因子的监测数据,本文通过应用影响渤海湾赤潮藻类生长的主导因子,建立了多元回归预测方程,运用多元回归模型对赤潮的发生进行预测,防止赤潮引发危害,减少赤潮造成的经济损失。本文通过对船舶压载水引入赤潮生物的风险评价和发生赤潮的预测相结合,分析了大连港内压载水引发赤潮的风险,风险等级为中度风险;赤潮预测模型的建立,为相关部门提供了预测信息。更多还原

【Abstract】 With increasing expansion of international trade, ballast water become one of the main methods to transmit invasive pest as shipping industry plays an important role in the world trade. The ballast water is obtained from the ports of departure and its near areas and the native red tide organisms were easily carried in the ships and transported to the port of destination. Due to the invasive characteristics of these organisms, it is a possibility that they become HABs(harmful algal blooms) when the ballast water are discharged and into the new environment. The problems caused by red tide threaten human health and ecosystems and are detrimental to economic development. Thus it is urgent to establish a rational system of risk assessment to face the challenge and reduce the hazard of biological invasion.According to the investigation of 12 sites in the waters of Dalian port, related information about physical and chemical factors of this water were obtained and the species composition and cell abundance of plankton were discussed and analyzed, which provide the information for the following assessment.This paper discusses risk assessment methods and models from two aspects. Researching and assessing the risk assessment system of red tide organisms introduced by ships ballast water in Dalian port. First, risks of invasive organisms by ships ballast water were identified through the literatures and analysis of survey data in Dalian port and potential risk were found. After study and analysis, a three-layer (target layer, criteria layer and index layer) risk assessment indexes system were established, in which the weight value was determined by analytical hierarchy process and membership degree was determined by fuzzy comprehensive assessment method. Finally, the risk of introduction of invasive red tide organisms by ballast water was valued by figures through weighted sum using the principle of score and the risk levels of red tide organisms by ships’ ballast water was obtained. By using the decisive factors which affected the abundance of phytoplankton in Bohai Bay, this work established a multi-variant regression equation based on the monitoring data of environmental factors in Dalian port. Multi-variant regression equation is essential to predict the red tides thus to prevent the potential damages and reduce the economic loss.By the combination of the risk assessment of red tide and the forecast of HABs, the risk assessment system of red tide organisms introduced by ships ballast water in Dalian port was analyzed and the risk level was determined to be moderate; the establishment of forecast model of red tide provides useful information for relevant departments.更多还原