城区地价监测预警研究

【作者】 纪红帆；

【导师】 蔡福顺；

【作者基本信息】 贵州大学 ， 工商管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,城市土地使用制度改革不断深化,城市土地从“无偿、无限期、无流动”到“有偿、有限期、有流动”利用,逐步进行了收取国有土地使用费(税),城镇国有土地使用权的出让与转让,商品房开发等改革,随着土地有偿使用制度改革的不断深入,我国土地市场建设从无到有、从点到面取得了长足的发展,土地在城市建设及社会经济发展中的作用和价值日益显现出来。土地供应成为新时期国家宏观调控的重要手段,地价也成为了土地市场运作重要的衡量和价格判断工具,为制定合理的地价政策,必须要充分了解和掌握城市地价的动态变化和空间分布,因此,建立城市地价动态监测体系成为了必然,贵阳市于2001年完成城市土地分类定级、地价动态监测体系的基础工作,地价动态监测体系的建立,为掌握城市土地市场价格水平,经营城市土地,保障土地市场健康、稳定发展提供了重要依据。本文结合国内外城市地价动态监测体系现状,借鉴房地产市场监测预警理论与方法,在近几年来各位学者对土地市场预警研究的思路的基础上,对贵阳市中心城区土地价格市场监测及预警进行了一定的实践运用。文章共分为六个部分:其中绪论部分详细分析了研究的背景和意义,总结了国内外房地产监测预警理论与技术的研究动态;第二部分对城市地价管理状况进行了分析;第三部分对城市地价动态监测预警的方法与过程进行了探讨;第四部分以贵阳市中心城区为例对城市地价动态监测预警进行了实证研究,分析了贵阳市城市地价的变化原因及存在问题,并对未来地价走势情况进行了阐述;第五部分则根据贵阳市中心城区土地市场的现状及预警结果,对其土地市场建设和管理提出了相应的对策和调控想法;第六部分为结语部分。文章对贵阳市中心城区地价监测预警的实证研究结果是:①目前贵阳市中心城区地价水平基本合理,与其社会经济发展水平相适应②地价水平将继续稳步攀升,短期内不会有大的警情出现。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the city land use system reform has deepened unceasingly in the 1980s, the use of the urban land from "free, unlimited time, does not have the flowing" to"paid, has the flowing by a set time" , it has carried on the collection state-owned land working cost gradually (tax), cities state-owned land right of use’s selling with transfers, reforms and commercial housing development. Along with land paid use system reform unceasingly thorough, our country land market construction grew out of nothing, has made the considerable progress from the spot to the area, the land appears day by day in the urban construction and the socio-economic development function and the value comes out. The land supplied into the new time country macroeconomic regulation and control the important means that the soil-rent value has also become the land market operation important weight and the price judgment tool, therefore, established the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system to become the necessity, Guiyang completed the city land classification grade, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system’s establishment work, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system’s establishment in 2001, to grasp the urban land market price level, managed the urban land, protect land market ,which have provided the important basis.This article unifies the domestic and foreign urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system present situation, profits from the real estate market monitor early warning theory and the method, in the last few years the fellow scholars to the land market early warning research’s mentality’s foundation, has carried on certain practice utilization to the Guiyang town center city land price market monitor and the early warning. The article altogether divides into six parts: the introduction part multianalysed research’s background and the significance, summaried the domestic and foreign real estate monitor early warning theory and the technical research tendency; The second part has carried on the analysis to the urban soil-rent value management condition; The third part is this article core research results’ foundation to the urban soil-rent value monitor early warning’s method and the process; The fourth part has conducted the empirical study take the Guiyang town center city as the example to the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor early warning, and has carried on the elaboration to the future soil-rent value trend situation; The fifth part according to the Guiyang town center city land market’s present situation and the early warning result, The sixth part is the conclusion part.The article to the Guiyang town center city soil-rent value monitor early warning’s empirical study result is:①At present Guiyang town center city soil-rent value level basic reasonable, adapts with its socio-economic development level②Thesoil-rent value level will continue to climb with steady steps, in the short-term will not have the big police sentiment to appear.更多还原