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新人民币汇率制度下的中国对外直接投资理论及实证研究

Theoretic and Empirical Study on China’s Foreign Direct Investment under the New RMB Exchange Rate System

【作者】 高翔宇

【导师】 滕永平;

【作者基本信息】 沈阳工业大学 , 国际贸易学, 2008, 硕士

【摘要】 对外直接投资发源于19世纪70年代。经历了一个多世纪的演化后,以跨国公司为载体的资本流动对世界各国企业国际竞争力、产业结构调整、国际收支平衡以及一国经济的持续发展产生了深远的影响,对外直接投资因此成为经济学家关注的问题。在开放经济中,汇率作为两国货币之间的比价,决定国内外商品和生产要素的相对价格,从而决定了FDI的流向和规模,成为国际直接投资的重要影响因素。90年代末期,面对经济全球化深入发展的趋势,为适应中国产业结构调整、经济可持续发展等各方面需要,中国政府实施“走出去”战略,鼓励有比较优势的各类所有制企业开展对外直接投资和跨国经营,推动中国有实力的企业通过对外投资不断发展壮大。实施“走出去”战略至今,中国对外直接投资得到快速发展,中国企业逐渐成为全球直接投资领域的一支新生力量。人民币汇率在中国对外直接投资中是必不可少的影响因素。自从2005年7月21日开始,中国实行参考“一篮子”货币,有管理的浮动汇率制度。汇率制度变革下的中国对外直接投资也在发生着变化,特别是在中国有管理的浮动汇率波动幅度预期加大的情况下,中国对外直接投资的发展更加令人期待。本文主要从两个方面进行分析,一方面是汇率制度的改变对中国对外直接投资的影响;另一方面为人民币汇率波动幅度预期加大对中国对外直接投资的影响。本文以2005年7月的人民币汇率制度改革为分割点,通过汇率制度改革前后中国对外直接投资变化的分析,探索人民币汇率因素对中国对外直接投资影响的变化。本文在最后列出了在当前汇率制度下中国对外直接投资应该注意的事项,为了使中国企业在对外直接投资中能够有所借鉴。

【Abstract】 Foreign direct investment originated in the 1870s, FDI has evaluated more than a century. Capital flows have had a far-reaching impact on the international competitiveness of enterprises, industrial restructuring, the international balance of payments, as well as a country’s sustained economic development by multinational corporations as the vector in the world. Economists start to consider about the FDI. In an open economy, the exchange rate is Proportion of two currencies. The exchange rate decided relative prices of goods and factors of production at home and abroad, thus determined FDI flows and the scale .So FDI became an important factor in international direct investment.The late 1990s, in the face of the in-depth development of economic globalization trend, the Chinese government proposed the implementation of the "going out" strategy for adapting the industrial structure adjustment and sustainable development of all aspects of economic. The Chinese government encouraged comparative advantages enterprises of all kinds of ownerships to do foreign direct investment, and go on multinational operations. And The Chinese government promoted China’s powerful enterprises continues to grow and develop through foreign investment. Since implementing of the "going out" strategy, China’s foreign direct investment has grown rapidly and Chinese enterprises gradually became a new force in global direct investment fields. The RMB exchange rate was indispensable factor in China’s foreign direct investment.Since July 21, 2005, China implemented referencing "basket" currency. The strategy can be called a managed floating exchange rate system. China’s foreign direct investment was changing under the exchange rate system changing constantly; especially China’s foreign direct investment is looked forward to faster developing under the managed floating exchange rate fluctuations increasing circumstances.This article analyzed from two aspects, first, the change of the exchange rate regime impacts on China’s foreign direct investment, second, the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate to increase expectedly impacts on China’s foreign direct investment. This article lets the RMB exchange rate system reform in July 2005 as segmentation. This article explores the RMB exchange rate factor on the impact of China’s foreign direct investment through analysis of China’s foreign direct investment after the reform of the exchange rate system. In order to enable Chinese enterprises can be in the draw in foreign direct investment; this article sets out the issues what Chinese enterprises should pay attention to in foreign direct investment in the final.

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