【作者】 徐彬；

【导师】 孟祥海；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 居民出行产生作为交通需求的前提和基础,其结果直接影响到以下各阶段预测结果的优劣,进而影响到交通设施规划的合理性,在需求预测中占有举足轻重的作用。而居民出行产生量与区域人口息息相关,在没有历年人口调查数据的基础上如何准确预测人口显得尤为重要。另外,随着人们生活水平的提高,居民出行中的弹性出行比重会越来越大,而影响弹性出行的因素很多,如何在诸多因素中提取主要因素并准确预测弹性出行产生量倍受学者关注。基于上述观点,本文对Lowry模型进行改进,预测交通小区的人口数和岗位数,并将结果应用于居民出行产生量的预测。引入人口位势和岗位位势的概念,正确表述Lowry模型中人口和岗位分布函数的实际意义。在应用遗传算法对人口位势和岗位位势标定后,通过多元逐步回归分析确定了各类土地利用与人口位势和岗位位势之间的关系,进而确定了影响人口位势和岗位位势的主要土地利用类型。此时,即根据规划年土地利用便可计算规划年的人口位势和岗位位势,并应用Lowry改进模型计算交通小区的人口数和岗位数。在着重分析居民出行的目的特性的基础上,对各类出行目的进行了汇总和分类,将出行按目的划分为上班、上学和弹性出行三类。针对弹性出行,引入效用函数概念,用以说明周边小区对本小区弹性出行的影响,最终建立分目的的居民出行产生预测模型。将Lowry改进模型与居民出行产生预测相结合,进行案例分析。将Lowry改进模型计算得到的各小区人口及岗位数应用于分目的的居民出行产生预测模型,进而得到各交通小区分目的居民出行产生量。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the precondition and foundation for transportation demand, the result of trip generation affects the following stage and rationality of transportation planning, so trip generation is very important in transportation demand. The amount of trip generation is closely bound up region population, so it is important to forecast region population with out investigated data. On the side, elasticity trip will be more and more along with economy development. There are many factors affect the elasticity trip, how to forecast elasticity trip accurately is attended by many scholar.Base on the above standpoints, this article forecasts population and employments of trip zones by improving the Lowry model. The result of Lowry model applies to trip generation forecast.This paper introduces population potential and the employment potential concept to improve the population and the employment distributation function of the Lowry model. Using the genetic algorithm to calibrate the population potential and the employment potential, then, through multi-dimensional gradually regression to analysis the relationship between each kind of land utilization and population position potential and employment potential. In this way to determine the main land utilization type which influence population potential and employment potential. So, according to year land utilization, we can compute population potential and employment potential, and apply them to the Lowry model.Then, based on emphatically analyzes in the goal characteristic of inhabitant trip, compiles to each kind of trip characteristics are three kinds, namely goes to work, goes to school and elastic trip. Introduction utility function concept, with showed the peripheral elasticity trip influence, finally, and establishes the subtitle inhabitant trip generation forecast model.With the help of case to unify the Lowry model and the trip generation forecast. Trip zones population and employments obtains from the Lowry model apply in the trip generation forecast model, obtained the quantity of trip generation of different items at last.更多还原