【作者】 胡乃利；

【导师】 李传奇；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国社会经济快速发展和人口的不断增长,大量未经处理的工业废水和生活污水直接排入江、河、湖、海而使水体污染日益严重,水体质量明显下降。水环境污染的日益加剧已经严重制约了我国社会经济发展,危害了生态环境,影响了人民生活和身体健康。济南市作为山东省的政治、经济、文化中心,一直以来就是一个资源性缺水城市,地表水在全市的生产生活用水中占有重要比重。位于济南市槐荫区与长清区交界的玉清湖水库是济南市大型引黄供水水库,蓄水面积4.90平方公里,作为济南市的三个客水水源地之一,其水质的优劣对济南市的供水具有重要影响。本文依托玉清湖水库为研究对象,在参阅国内外大量有关水质评价与预测文献研究的基础上,通过对玉清湖水库水质评价及水质预测的定量研究,为玉清湖水库的水环境管理和规划提供重要科学依据。本文结合实际情况,选取7个水质指标因子对玉清湖水库的水质进行了研究。在评价方法的选择上,引入处理非正态高维数据的基于数据驱动的新兴统计方法——投影寻踪方法,取得了较高的分辨效果。在应用投影寻踪单一方法进行水质评价的基础上,考虑到水环境系统评价问题具有多目标性和模糊不确定性的特点,将投影寻踪方法与模糊模式识别理论相耦合,利用投影寻踪方法确定7个评价因子的权重,并将其应用于模糊模式识别模型中,从而得出玉清湖水库2003——2007年的评价等级值。实例研究的结果表明,玉清湖水库水质属于Ⅲ类水质,污染物主要为有机污染物;2006年污染最为严重,从2006,2007年有污染增大趋势。对玉清湖水库水质的预测研究,以污染相对严重的化学需氧量,氨氮,总磷,总氮为研究对象,由于监测时间序列短,资料严重不足,本文运用灰色理论GM(1,1)预测模型建立化学需氧量,氨氮,总磷,总氮的一维时间序列水质预测模型,通过验证模型精度及残差修正,较好的预测了化学需氧量,氨氮,总磷,总氮浓度未来三年的变化,具有一定的应用价值。在对玉清湖水库水质进行评价和预测研究的基础上,本文还分析了玉清湖水库水质年际变化趋势,设计了玉清湖水库水质实时评价系统,并针对玉清湖水体污染特点提出了防治对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,along with China’s rapid socio-economic development and continuing population growth, large quantities of untreated industrial wastewater and domestic sewage have been discharged directly into rivers, lakes and seas which leads to increasingly serious water pollution and decreased water quality. The increasing pollution of the water environment has been seriously constraining China’s socio-economic development, endangering the ecological environment and affecting the people’s lives and health.Jinan City in Shandong Province as the political, economic and cultural center is the town of water shortage.Surface water makes up an important proportion of the city’s water for production and daily life. Yuqing Lake Reservoir with storage area of 4.90 square kilometers is a large water supply reservoir to Jinan City which is located in the junction of Huaiyin District and Changqing District of Jinan City. Yuqing Lake Reservoir is one of three water source passengers in Jinan City,its water quality of the pros and cons has an important impact on the water supply for Jinan City. This paper which relied on study on Yuqing Lake Reservoir, on the basis of reading large number literature about water quality assessment and prediction both foreign and internal and by quantitative study on water quality assessment and prediction of Yuqing Lake Reservoir provided an important scientific basis for water environmental management and planning of Yuqing Lake Reservoir.This paper selected seven indicators of the quality factors to assess and predict water quality based on the monitoring date for Yuqing Lake Reservoir by the actual situation. In the choice of assessing methods,the method of non-state high-dimensional data which is based on the emerging data-driven statistical method --projection pursuit method was applied and made the effect of the higher resolution. On the basis of the application of water quality assessment based on projection pursuit, considering water environment assessment system with multiple objectives and the characteristic of fuzzy, this paper gave value of the ratings of Yuqing Lake Reservoir in five years from 2003 to 2007 by projection pursuit method coupled with the fuzzy recognition theory, with projection pursuit method determining seven assessment indicators’ weights. The results of the study showed that water quality rates of Yuqing Lke Reservoir are III Class from 2003 to 2007, the main pollutants were organic pollutants, the most serious pollution period was in 2006 and a trend of pollution were increasing from 2006 to 2007.On the water quality prediction of Yuqing Lake Reservoir, the paper seleted CODc, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, total nitrogen which were relatively serious pollution for study. As a result of the short time series and serious lake of monitoring date, this paper used grey system theory to establish one-dimensional time series predictionmodel--GM (1,1) model to predict CODc, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, totalnitrogen. After validating model accuracy and qualification, the paper predicted concentration of CODc, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, total nitrogen in the next three years and had a certain effectual value.On the basis of water quality assessment and prediction of Yuqing Lake Reservoir, this paper also analyzed water quality trends in interannual variability of Yuqing Lake Reservoir, designed water quality assessment system for real-time assessment of Yuqing Lake Reservoir, and put forward water pollution control measures and proposals for characteristics of the water pollution of Yuqing Lake Reservoir.更多还原