【作者】 肖铮；

【导师】 赵息；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 会计学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国市场经济体制改革的深化和资本市场的快速发展,经济领域的复杂性、不确定性日益凸显,企业发生财务危机乃至破产倒闭的情形越来越多。房地产业在整个国民经济体系中属于先导性、基础性产业,产业关联度强、带动系数大的特点,使其成为促进国民经济增长的支柱产业。近年来,也出现了房地产投资增速过快、空置率上升及房地产价格迅速上涨等一系列问题。在房地产业高速发展的背后,风险也在与日俱增,成为社会焦点问题。因此,建立房地产企业财务预警系统,通过房地产企业数据的分析对房地产发展的情况进行及时反映、监督和预警,无疑可以大大提高房地产企业的抗风险能力,而且还可以保证投资人、债权人和国家的利益。本文在分析了构建房地产业财务危机预警系统的必要性与可行性后,使用定量分析的方法,建立了四个判别财务危机的预警模型:使用财务指标的基于主成分分析的Logistic模型、使用非财务指标的基于主成分分析的Logistic模型、使用综合指标的基于主成分分析的Logistic模型和Z值模型。之后,选取了4家陷入财务危机的公司和41家非财务危机公司作为样本,以2002年至2005年间的公开财务报表的数据为计算依据,并利用SPSS13.0统计分析软件进行了实证分析。最后对实证分析的数据进行了对比分析,认为四种模型在一定程度上都可以对房地产上市企业进行有效的财务危机预警,相比之下,Z值模型更为稳定和可靠一些。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the further reform of economic structure and the rapid development of capital market, the complexity and uncertainty in the field of economy have been appearing increasingly. Corporations come to a financial crisis increasingly; some of them even go bankrupt. The real estate, which is related to many other estates, has high driving coefficients and a high degree of association, is the forerunner and foundation in the national economy system. In recent years, a series of problems appear, for example, the rapid investment in real estate, the high rate of vacancy, the rapid rise of the real estate price. The risks, appearing behind the rapid development of the real estate, have been focused by the public. So the financial early-warning system should be established to reflect and inspect the development of the real estate, what’s more, give early warning to it. It is no doubt that the system would help the real estate with avoiding the risk, improving the interests of the investor, the loaner and the country.First, the necessity and feasibility of establishing financial crisis system in the real estate are analyzed. The quantitative analysis methods are used and four models for distinguishing the financial crisis are established. They are: Logistic Model (using financial index) based on principal component analysis, Logistic Model (non-using financial index) based on principal component analysis, Logistic Model (using synthetic index) based on principal component analysis, and Z-value Model. Second. 4 corporations (coming to a financial crisis) and 41 corporations (without coming any financial crisis) are taken as samples. Based on the financial statements to the public from 2002 to 2005, an empirical analysis using SPSS13.0 is performed. Last, the data coming out from the empirical analysis are performed comparative analysis. The conclusion that all the four models can give early warnings to financial crisis at a certain content are drawn. In contrast, Z-value model is more stable and credible.更多还原