【作者】 霍成军；

【导师】 葛少云；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 “十五”以来,随着电力供需矛盾的加剧,电力系统的负荷特性发生了很大变化,各地区电网出现了最大负荷持续快速增长、峰谷差增大、负荷率下降、高峰时段和枯水期电力供应紧张、电网调峰困难等一系列现象,给系统的安全稳定运行带来很大威胁,也给电力市场分析预测工作和市场营销工作带来诸多困难。为此,进行负荷特性分析研究具有非常重要的意义。本文首先在对西部某城市负荷特性进行深入调研工作的基础上,从年、月、典型日和典型行业等方面对电网的负荷特性进行了深入的分析,并通过分析研究得出了一些具体的结论。其次,针对目前负荷特性分析研究中,难以定量分析各种影响因素(主要是自然因素和政策因素),并缺乏直观表达手段的问题,本文引入灰色关联度分析方法对影响负荷特性变化的因素进行了定量分析,得出了对负荷特性的变化影响较大的因素,为电力系统调度、规划和营销等部门的工作提供参考。此外,本文在改善负荷特性方面建立了基于改进的模糊集重心决策法数学模型,在电力供应紧张时,引入该方法合理安排各个供电区域的限电次序,帮助调度运行人员制定科学合理的错峰限电序位表,使得错峰限电损失降到最低。最后,通过算例验证了该方法的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 10th 5-year, as the contradiction between power supply and demand becomes acute, load characteristic has changed a lot. A set of problems have emerged, such as steady increase in peak-load, rise in peak-valley difference, decrease in load factor, deficiency of electricity in peak-load period and dry season, difficult peak regulation and so on. These bring great difficulty to system stability as well as the analysis and forecast of the power market and marketing. Therefore it is significant to study the load characteristics deeply.Firstly, based on the investigation of the load characteristics of a city in west, this paper analyzes the load characteristics from the load curves of year, month, typical day and typical industries deeply and draws some conclusions. Secondly, to solve the problem in the present study which is difficult to quantitatively analyze the impacts of a variety of factors, and lack of visual means of expression, this paper introduces gray relevant analysis to evaluate those factors, and find the more influential ones for dispatching, planning and marketing departments. Besides, an improved fuzzy gravity-center comprehensive judgment model is founded to better load characteristics. It can be applied to arrange electricity-limited order reasonably and lower the losses of power-limiting most. At last, the final result validates feasibility of the method on the case.更多还原