【作者】 余海；

【导师】 黄云德；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 结构工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 本文基于国内外风险管理理论和应用研究的已有成果,针对复杂系统管理的特点,从方法论的角度,将等级全息建模法、蒙特卡罗仿真模拟、模糊综合评价法、替代值多目标权衡分析以及多目标风险影响分析法探索式地引入到复杂系统的风险管理研究中,为拓展该领域理论和应用的广度及深度增强了更具实现的可能性,为跨学科的系统风险管理实践提供了有力的支撑。本文主要研究内容及成果有以下几个方面:(1)在总结风险辨识传统方法的基础上,针对实际复杂系统存在多重等级结构的特征,将等级全息建模法引入到本文研究中,为克服在大规模系统风险建模中存在的弱点开辟了思路。(2)在对比传统的风险估计和评估量化技术的基础上,蒙特卡罗仿真模拟与模糊综合评价法的引入深化了风险估计和评估阶段分析技术的深度,并将两者的算法思路进行了详细阐述,体现了它们在计算机信息技术的支撑下强大的数值计算优势。(3)从方法论的角度,将拥有广阔前景的替代值多目标权衡分析法和多目标风险影响分析法探索式地应用于风险决策中,并结合目前备受关注的自然灾害极端事件风险管理问题,以皮纳图博火山泥流灾害的真实案例为依据,展示了替代值多目标权衡分析法在风险决策中的有效性和优越性。(4)结合项目管理中宝贵的风险应对及监控历史经验,详细深入地阐述了该阶段常用的各种措施及策略,为复杂系统风险应急预案及全过程监控系统的完善,提供了很有实用价值的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on international and national risk management theory and application results as well as characteristics of complex systems, hierarchical holographic modeling, monte carlo simulation, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, surrogate worth trade-off method and multiobjective risk impact analysis are exploringly and methodologically introduced into risk management research of complex systems for exploring the extent and depth of theory and application about this field, and increasing their possibilities. Moreover, these methods will give strong support for multidisciplinary system risk management.The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1) Based on summary of traditional risk estimate, hierarchical holographic modeling is introduced in this research for multiscale structural characteristics of real complex systems. This action will pioneer thinking for conquering some weakness of large system risk modeling.(2) Based on contrasting traditional risk estimate and evaluation techniques, the introduction of monte carlo simulation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation deepens the depth of analytical techniques used in risk estimate and evaluation process. This paper detailedly discusses their arithmetic programs as embodies their powerful numerical computation advantage when they get support from computer information technologies.(3) Methodologically, valuable surrogate worth trade-off method and multiobjective risk impact analysis are exploringly introduced in risk decision. Considering attention-getting risk management issues of natural disaster extreme events, this research reveals validity and advantage of surrogate worth trade-off method applied in risk decision, when using Pinatubo Mount as the case.(4) Combining valuable historical experience of risk control and supervision in project management, this research deeply discusses many kinds of methods and strategies usually used in this phase, and supplies inspiration for perfecting complex system risk emergency measure and supervision systems.更多还原