【作者】 张婷婷；

【导师】 罗霞；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 城市群作为体现城市化发展水平的高级形式,在我国已经受到了前所未有的广泛关注。城市群中的核心城市是形成整体合力,推动城市及区域经济发展的载体和核心单元。作为城市群区域内外联系的纽带,核心城市的对外交通规划与发展对于推动城市群、区域社会经济全面发展具有重要的作用。论文将城市群整体对外交通规划和发展作为核心城市对外运输通道规划的先决条件,从综合运输可持续发展和城市群整体发展的多重角度考虑核心城市对外运输发展规划,改变了以往单一运输方式发展的思路和核心城市各自分散规划对外交通的方法和模式。主要内容如下:(1)分析核心城市对外交通与城市群发展的关系,明确核心城市的范围。通过比较一般意义上城市的对外交通和核心城市的对外交通,得出核心城市对外交通的特点就是具有层次性。根据实际情况对核心城市对外交通三个层次的交通运输特点做了详细的论述,并通过内外因两方面针对影响核心城市对外交通的发展因素进行了讨论。(2)介绍了SWOT分析方法的原理,并通过分析确定了用SWOT分析方法来制定核心城市对外交通发展战略的可行性与合理性。运用SWOT方法对成渝城市群的核心城市成都的对外交通发展战略进行分析,并制定出了成都市对外交通发展战略。(3)运用灰色关联-回归方法分析对核心城市对外客运需求进行了预测,为确保结果的准确性,本文又运用客运量产生机理模型进行了校核;经过结果对比,误差在允许范围之内,保证了结果的精确性;分别运用相关系数法和弹性系数法对核心城市的货运发生需求和过境货运需求进行了预测。(4)根据制定出的核心城市发展战略,明确核心城市对外交通的发展要求,并以此为标准对现有的局域和广域对外交通规划进行适应性评价。在实例分析中,成渝城市群中成都市的现有对外交通规划评价结果为基本满足城市群发展的要求,同时就需要进一步整改的方向和内容提出了建议,并就新建线路的时机问题进行了论述。通过对城市群中核心城市对外运输通道功能定位、对外交通需求分析、系统规划等方面的分析和研究,搭建新形势下城市群中核心城市对外运输通道规划体系的基本框架,以期为实现我国城市群以及核心城市的对外交通发展提供参考和支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an advanced form that incarnates the urbanization level, city group has gotten extensive attention in China. The core city among city group is the carrier and core unit which impulses the development of regional and urban economics. The external traffic of the core city is a tie that connects the regions inside and outside of the city group. And the planning and development of external traffic in the core city play an important effect on the society and economy development of the city group. The paper focuses on the entire planning and development of external traffic in city group as a precondition of external transportation channel planning of the core city. Compared with the traditional single traffic methods and separate planning modes, the external traffic planning of the core city is analyzed on considering both sustainable development of comprehensive transportation and overall development of the city group.The main contents are listed as follow:(1) The paper analyzes the relationship between external traffic of core city and the development of the city group, and defines the bound of the core city. It is concluded that the external traffic of the core city has a feature of hierarchy by means of comparing external traffic of general city with that of core city. The external traffic of core city is divided into three levels, which are discussed in detail. And then, the influence factors of external traffic in core city are divided into two parts, internal factor and external factor, which are the base of the establishment of external traffic development strategy of core city in city group.(2) It introduces SWOT analysis method, which is proved to be as a feasible and rational method to establish the external traffic development strategy of the core city. Moreover, the SWOT is used to analyze and establish the external traffic development strategy of Chengdu in Cheng-Yu city group.(3) It forecast the urban external traffic using grey correlation-regression method. To ensure the accuracy, the paper checks the result with passenger capacity producing mechanical model. And the error is in the accepted range. With the help of the correlation coefficient method and elastic coefficient method, the freight producing demand and pass-through freight demand of core city are forecasted. (4) According to the development strategy of core city established above, the paper defines the external traffic development requirement and evaluates the existing external traffic planning of the local region and wide region. In the example, the external traffic planning of Chengdu basically satisfies the development needs of Cheng-Yu city group. Then it proposes some advices to improve traffic planning in Chengdu. And the time of building a new line has also been discussed.By analyzing and researching the external transportation channel function definition, external traffic demand, system planning and other aspects of core city, the paper builds the basic framework of the external transportation channel planning in the core city within new circumstance. And all of these can be expected as a consultation and supported to achieve the development of external traffic in core city and city group in China.更多还原