【作者】 李莹；

【导师】 刘曙光；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,社会发展和科学进步为海洋科学的发展提供了新的机遇,世界各国以及相关的国际组织纷纷组织力量开展海洋科技优先发展领域研究,并制定了相关的发展战略规划。要想成为创新型海洋强国,就必须把握海洋科技的未来发展趋势,选择适合本国实际情况的科技发展路径,确定研发重点,使有限的海洋科技资源得到优化配置和利用,实现跨越式发展。对海洋科技发展涵义的理解,已经不能像传统分析那样把发展解构为单纯的经济问题、单纯的社会问题或单纯的环境问题。从长远来看,海洋科技的发展,应该实现人口、经济、社会、环境和资源的良性互动,应该在自主创新、重点跨越、支持发展、引领未来的科技方针的指导下,步入一个全新的创新发展时期。而这一目标的实现,需要我们寻找更为行之有效的海洋科技发展战略决策模式和方法。技术预见作为近年来世界各国政府普遍采用的体制化研究模式,其内涵和特征完全符合现代化科技创新发展的需要,本文试图把技术预见模式引入我国海洋科技创新发展领域,用技术预见观念引导我国海洋科技创新发展,从而强化科技开创未来的战略意识,引导我国海洋经济走上依靠海洋科技创新而发展的良性轨道,协调海洋经济发展过程中与社会、人口、环境和资源的矛盾,调整海洋产业结构布局,优化资源配置,加快我国海洋创新体系建设等。本文在大量调研和系统论证的基础上,从理论层面探讨了技术预见和海洋科技创新发展的相关问题,提出关注技术预见社会属性的观点,并以“中国未来20年技术预见”项目中的涉海类技术课题为实证研究,以此说明基于技术预见的海洋科技创新发展战略的可行性;确立了海洋科技预见的总体目标;对技术预见对海洋经济动力因素的作用进行了分析;提出了基于技术预见的海洋科技创新发展战略的组成,并提出了相关建议;通过SWOT分析,对青岛海洋科技创新发展的基础进行分析,提出了青岛海洋科技创新发展的建议;并以青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室的建设为个案,对其构建和组织运行机制进行分析,说明其中的技术预见观念,并指出其中尚存在的问题。本文力求从宏观战略角度,用技术预见指导海洋科技创新发展,从建立海洋科技创新体系的着力点出发,用技术预见研究帮助政府系统选择优先发展领域和支持项目;提高海洋科技创新体系效率;促进海洋科技创新过程中的资源整合;促进创新网络的形成;以社会需求为创新发展的源头,解决海洋科技创新成果产业化问题;并为海洋科技创新发展与社会、经济、环境协调发展提供预警机制。海洋科技的可持续协调发展是一个长期系统的过程,随着技术预见研究的深入以及海洋科技创新的快速发展,把技术预见观念应用于海洋科技创新发展领域必将出现更多更细致的要求,也就需要加强后续探索和滚动研究,笔者将继续关注。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1980s, social development and scientific progress provide a new opportunity for the development of marine science. Countries and the relevant international organizations research on the priority areas of marine science, and formulate a related development strategic planning. To become innovative marine power, must seize the future development of marine science & technology, choose the actual situation of the national science & technology, determine research and development priorities, to ensure that the limited resources of the marine science & technology has been optimized configuration and use, to achieve leapfrog development.The meaning of development of marine science & technology has not as same as the traditional analysis which consist of purely economic issues, social issues or simple environment problems. In the long term, the development of marine science & technology should be to achieve population, economy, society, environment and resources benign interaction, should be to enter a new innovative development period, under the guidance of scientific principle. But the realization of this goal needs the more effective marine science & technology policy-making pattern and method that develop strategies.In recent years, technology foresight has been used as a system research model by governments around the world, its contents and characteristics compliance with the needs of modern science & technology innovative development. This paper attempts to introduce technology foresight into the innovative development of national marine science & technology. To use the concepts of technology foresight, leads the innovative development of national marine science & technology, so as to intensify strategic consciousness that science open up the future, leads the development of national marine economy depends on the innovation of marine science & technology, harmonize inconsistency of society, population, environment and resources in the development of marine economy, fine-tune marine industry configuration layout, optimize resources configuration, quicken the construction of national marine innovative system, and so on.Based on the large amount of investigation and research work, this paper discuss the related issues of technology foresight and marine science & technology innovative development in theoretical level, with“Technology Foresight of China Towards 2020”project, to ensure the feasibility of strategy of marine science & technology innovative development base on technology foresight; Establish the overall goal of marine science & technology foresight, put forward specific ideas for work on the Technology Foresight, and analyze the function of technology foresight for motivating factors of marine economy; Put forward the inscapes of the strategy of marine science & technology innovative development base on technology foresight; Analyze the basic of Qingdao’s marine science & technology innovative development, use the case of the construction of National Marine Science & Technology laboratory, analyze its construction and working-mechanism.This paper point out that technology foresight can help government choose priority development fields and items, advance efficiency of marine science & technology innovative system, optimize resources of marine science & technology, accelerate the building of innovative net, resolve problems of innovative production industry, and offer warning system for correspond of marine science & technology, society, economy, and environment.更多还原