【作者】 高志刚；

【导师】 韩树宗； 刘克修；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 物理海洋， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人类活动对海洋、大气系统的影响迅速扩大,全球变暖与海平面上升日益成为人类关注的焦点问题。海平面上升会给沿海地区带来诸多不良影响,酿成灾害,如海岸侵蚀、海水入侵强度加大等。天文潮位、风暴潮位是海岸工程设计水位、警戒水位等的主要设计依据。因此,研究海平面上升对潮汐、风暴潮的影响规律具有重要的科学价值和应用价值。本文采用数值模拟方法研究东中国海潮汐、风暴潮在海平面上升情况下的变化规律。采用ECOM模式模拟了东中国海的潮波,与实测资料的对比表明:M₂、S₂、O₁、K₁四分潮振幅的绝对平均误差分别为6.89cm,6.28cm,3.26cm和4.29cm,迟角的绝对平均误差分别为6.95°,8.25°,13.13°和10.45°。模拟结果较好的反映了该海区的潮汐特征。结合Jelesnianski圆形台风风场模型和ECOM模型建立了东中国海的台风风暴潮数值模型。选取三个台风过程（TC0012, TC0209, TC0314）的模拟结果与实测结果进行对比,证明了ECOM模型用于模拟东中国海台风风暴潮的可靠性。潮汐敏感性试验表明,海平面上升1m,各分潮振幅、迟角在近岸浅水海域变化幅度较大;半日分潮较全日分潮受影响大;大部分海区分潮振幅增加,如江华湾M2分潮振幅增加20cm,部分海区减小,如长江口外M2分潮振幅减小2cm;各分潮无潮点均不同程度的向海区中央移动。风暴潮敏感性试验表明,随海平面上升,风暴增、减水极值的改变在空间上不是统一的,海平面上升对风暴潮造成的影响主要为近岸海域;随海平面上升幅度的增加,增、减水效应的改变量也随之增加;选取中国近岸特征站位风暴潮增水极值进行比较可以看出,对于大部分站位而言,增水极值随海平面上升而减小,但量值较小。如海平面上升1m,增水极值改变量最大的为吕泗站（TC0012）,仅减小13cm,减幅8.84%;海平面上升5m,增水极值改变量最大的为塘沽站（强风条件）,该站增水极值减小33cm,减幅仅4.59%。总体来说,海平面上升对风暴潮影响较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming and mean sea level rise have come to be a focused problem now. Mean sea level （MSL for short） rise may significantly aggravate the disaster of coast erosion. Astronomic tide and storm surge are two important factors taken into consideration in designing coastal engineering. Thus, it’s meaningful for study of effect of sea level rise on tide and storm surge. In this paper numerical simulation method is employed to study this issue.ECOM is used to simulate astronomic tide of the East China Sea （ECS for short）. The mean absolute error between simulation and observation of M₂, S₂, O₁ and K₁ are 6.89cm, 6.28cm, 3.26cm and 4.29cm in amplitudes and 8.9°, 9.0°, 6.7°and 22.0°in phase-lag specifically. The result shows that numerical model could near-really describe the tidal character of the ECS.Coupled with Jelesnianski circle wind model, ECOM is applied to simulate typhoon storm surge in the ECS. Process of TC0012, TC0209 and TC0314 are selected, calculated extreme surge elevation and its occurring time show good consistency with that of observed which confirms validation of ECOM to simulate typhoon storm surge in the ECS.Tidal sensitivity experiment shows that when MSL is of 1.0 m higher than normal: a) Coastal zones are affected more than that of deeper ocean. b) Semidiurnal tidal constituent varies more than that of diurnal tidal constituents. c) Amplitude of tidal component increases in most region while decreases in some region, for example, the amplitude of M2 co-tidal in Ganghaw-man is of 20 cm larger, while that of the mouth of Yangtze River is of 2 cm smaller. d) Most amphidromic points of tidal component move to deeper ocean direction.Sensitivity experiments for storm surge shows that as MSL rises: a) Variation of extreme surge elevation is non-uniform spatially, coastal regions are affected more than that of deeper ocean. b) Variation of storm surge grows in phase with argument of MSL rising. c) For most coastal stations, extreme high surge elevation decreases. d) Compared to variation of MSL the effect of MSL rise on storm surge is considerably finite. Whole speaking, numerical simulation shows that MSL rise makes little effect on storm surge.更多还原