内外压力下的人民币资本账户开放

【作者】 邓娴子；

【导师】 欧明刚；

【作者基本信息】 外交学院 ， 世界经济， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 资本账户开放问题是许多国家包括中国在内面临的一个重要问题。从长远看随着中国市场开放和经济改革的日益深入,渐进稳妥地开放资本市场、放松资本项目管制、最终实现人民币完全可兑换是中国外汇管理体制改革的必然选择。从近期国内国际经济形势上看,中国资本账户的放松管制面临着来自内外部的压力。当前国内经济面临的最大问题就是外汇储备增长过快导致诸如流动性过剩、通货膨胀压力、人民币升值压力等种种问题。在经常账户顺差暂时无法改变的情况下,可以让一般项目下的盈余通过资本项目下的流出来缓解外汇储备增长过快带来的种种问题,这就迫使了资本账户的逐步开放。从外部形势来看,许多国家把全球经济失衡的原因归结为人民币汇率的低估。然而人民币汇率的改革一直坚持的是自主性、可控性和渐进性的步伐,中国也无法承受人民币的过快升值带来的危害。在这样的情况下,美国等发达国家把对人民币升值的要求一部分转移到对资本账户开放的要求上来。这又从外部对我国资本账户的开放提出了要求。然而,在资本账户开放的过程中,各国都可能面临严峻的考验。中国资本账户开放目前面临的最大的风险就是资本流入的风险,在人民币升值的大背景下,资本账户开放引导资本走出去的效果可能也得不到保障。对比国际上其它国家资本账户开放的经验教训,可以找到一些资本账户开放过程中共同需要注意的问题,比如重视自身金融行业的发展和监管、货币政策的自主性、与资本账户开放相适应的宏观经济政策调整等。关于人民币资本账户开放的条件,各学者的看法基本一致,针对这些前提条件中国还需做好诸如转变增长方式、调整经济结构、健全国内金融体系和金融监管能力、提高汇率弹性等准备。文中最后在对一些现有的推进资本账户开放政策评价和前面对开放风险讨论的基础上对资本账户的开放提供了一些策略,具体包括适当控制资本流入,对资本流入的结构加以调控;在对外投资的放开中,应首先鼓励民营企业走出去,并予以信贷政策上的扶持,加强投资者的风险教育;资本项目的开放应充分考虑到银行和其它金融机构的发展情况,避免开放后竞争加剧对银行的不利影响;建立起资本流动风险控制体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Capital Account Liberalization is a crucial and running issue faced by many nations in the world including China. Along with the gradual opening of Chinese markets and reforms of economy, from a long run, the only choice of China’s foreign exchange management system reforms will be gradually and prudently opening the capital market, loosening controls of capital accounts and eternally achieve completely free convertibility of RMB. Aware of recent trends from both domestic and international economies, the external and internal pressures for loosening controls of China’s capital accounts have reached a crucial level. Internally, the dramatic increase of foreign exchange reserves leads to headache problems such as excess liquidity, inflation pressure and urge of RMB appreciation. Under the unsolved situation of current account surplus relief, the balance of international payments could be reached by outflows under capital accounts, thus we need phased opening of China’s capital accounts. Externally, many countries ascribe the crisis of global economic imbalances to the undervaluation of RMB. However, the RMB exchange rate reform policy insists on independence, controllability and gradualism, the harm of rapid appreciation is unaffordable to China. Thus, along with the same internal pressure, some developed countries such as the United States partially transfer their requirement of RMB appreciation to the requirement of opening the capital accounts. On the other hand, any country might endure baptisms during the opening of their capital accounts, we must prudently consider many important issues such as what kinds of risks would there be and how to avoid as much as all the risks by policy adjustments. This article will discuss the internal and external pressures of opening China’s capital accounts based on current economic status of China, and also will compare the loss and gains from other countries on opening of their capital accounts and capital markets, then finally try to discover the practical risks and countermeasures of evading the risks.更多还原