基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统设计

【作者】 林超斌；

【导师】 林健；

【作者基本信息】 五邑大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 入世以来,随着中国经济与世界经济的接轨,社会主义市场经济体制不断完善,政府在经济发展的过程中所起的作用也随之做出了相应的转变。面对许多前所未有的挑战,地方政府在决策过程中所涉及到的问题、需要考虑的因素都比以往更为复杂,如何制定科学的经济政策,进行合理的经济决策已成为地方政府的第一要务。因此,借助先进的管理方法进行科学化决策就显得十分必要。同时,各种通讯技术、信息技术以及核方法等人工智能技术的迅猛发展,为构建高效、稳定的决策支持系统提供了强有力的保证,也是提高政府部门办公效率的最有效手段之一。因此,应用先进的管理方法以及前沿的技术为决策者提供决策参考信息显得尤为重要同时也具备实现的可能性。本文正是基于此目的,对如何构建一套基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统做了较为深入的分析与研究。本文在分析区域经济系统的运行规律、发展趋势和影响因素的基础上,研究建立了基于核方法的区域经济系统的预测、预警与经济政策模拟运行系统;并用MATLAB语言编译实现上述算法与模型,然后应用MATLAB的COM组件编程技术将这些模型封装成组件,最后应用B/S系统调用上述组件,从而实现B/S模式下的基于核方法的区域经济智能决策支持系统。本系统选用C#.NET作为开发语言,选用SQL SERVER 2000进行数据库的开发。系统最终实现了数据维护与更新、数据查询与统计、经济预测、经济预警、经济政策模拟运行和系统管理等六个模块的功能。该系统充分利用现代网络技术和数据库技术,帮助政府决策部门及时了解区域经济发展的有关信息;并根据用户提供的实际经济发展情况和系统分析得出的评价指标体系,运用科学的分析模型,给出最优的、可靠的结论,为决策者随时随地提供高效、及时、高质量的决策信息,从而提高决策的科学性,引导区域经济健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China has entered the WTO, Chinese economy gradual integration with the world economy and the socialist market economic system continuously improved, thus the role that played by the government in the process of economic development also made corresponding changes. Facing so many unprecedented challenges, local governments in the decision-making process involved in the issues and factors to be considered more complex than ever. How to formulate a scientific economic policy in order to make a rational economic decision has become the most important task of the local governments. Whether full apply the auxiliary function of information technology, is a key measure for improving the efficiency of the local government’s office work. In the same time, the rapid development of advanced science and technology such as communications technology, information technology and artificial intelligence technology provided a powerful guarantee for building an efficient and stable information system. Thus, using advanced management methods and information technology to provide decision-making information for the decision maker not only the urgent matter but also with the possibility of achieving. This paper does a more in-depth analysis and research on how to build up a set of Regional Economical Intelligent Decision Support System (REIDSS) based on WEB.Based on analyze the mechanisms, and development trends and influencing factors of regional economical systems, this paper has designed a forecasting, early warning and simulation modeling systems which are translated and edited by Matlab as COM (Component Object Model) linked by C#.NET independently. The REIDSS based on WEB is exploited by C#.NET and SQL Server 2000, realized seven central module functions: data maintenance and update module, data statistic and query module, economic analyze module, economic predict module, economic early warning module, decision simulation module, and system manage module.REIDSS makes the best use of technology of modern web and database, can help the local government to realize the information timely, provide an optimal and reliable conclusions with scientific model which base on the real economic situation and system evaluation indicators. REIDSS can provide efficient, timely, high-quality decision-information for the decision-maker, improve the scientific nature of the decision-making and lead the regional economy healthy development.更多还原