工程项目施工阶段成本风险分析与对策研究

【作者】 林晓枝；

【导师】 张飞涟； 蔡雪峰；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 结构工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 工程项目施工是一个具有动态特征的系统工程,受项目所处环境干扰因素多,存在诸多的不确定性,具有很大的风险性。并且,与发达国家相比,我国对工程项目风险管理的风险意识、整体的风险管理水平还有很大差距。本文针对这种情况,在系统分析和全面总结国内外学者在这一领域研究成果的基础上,立足于承包商的角度,从理论和实践两个方面,对工程项目施工阶段影响成本的风险进行研究。首先,界定了工程项目施工阶段成本风险和风险管理的定义。并在对比分析现有风险识别方法的基础上,结合工程实际,综合运用系统分解法、项目资料分析法、专家调查法及现场考察法等风险识别方法,对工程项目施工阶段成本风险进行全面、系统的识别。其次,利用风险识别的结果,建立AHP方法的风险因素重要性排序结构模型和成本风险应对方案模型。采用问卷调查和数理统计法,进行工程项目施工阶段成本风险的估计与评价,分析得出影响成本的主要风险。然后,在风险估计和评价的基础上,本文提出了狭义的风险规划概念。并利用风险估计和评价的结果,结合ABC分析法,进行风险规划。同时,依据风险管理目标和原则,提出风险处置方法和策略。最后,利用案例分析法,结合具体的案例构建了基于模糊层次分析法的工程项目施工阶段成本风险因素重要性评价模型,进行成本风险评价,验证了模型的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Construction project is a systems engineering with dynamic character, there is cat-and-dag because of many nondeterminacies from multi interference factors in the environment of projects. Comparing with developed countries, there is less risk awareness about risk management of construction projects, also entire risk management expertise is far from the level in these countries. In such as case, this paper is focused on the study of the risk of various cost at the construction stage from the viewpoint of contractor, which touches both of the theory and practice under the basis of summarizing and analyzing the findings in this research area by the experts in China and outside China.First of all, this paper limited the definition of cost risk at the phase of construction and risk management. Then it placed emphasis on meticulous and completely identification of cost risk at the phase of construction through Systematic Analysis, project materials’ study, investigation by expertise and Survey at the spot during the construction, which is established at the basis of Contrastive analysis also considering the actual situation of construction projects.Secondly,based on the finding of cost risk identification, this paper is featured with the model of structural importance’s ordering and solution to cost risks under the method Of AHP. Its purpose is for the conclusion of main risks from cost factors through risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk at the phase of construction ,which is realized by questionnaires survey and mathematical statistics.Then, monographer has put forward a narrow sense proposal of risk aversion at the basis of risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk, also the solution for cost risk through ABC analysis based on the finding of risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk.and then to propose the risk handling solution and the strategic data-planning methodology.Finally, build up the importance-assessing model of cost risks at the construction stage, which is for the purpose of cost risks identification and valuating for inspection and verification to the valid of this model. It is through the fuzzy decision trees analysis in according to the study of idiographic actual cases.更多还原