基于单位时间锌产量预测的密闭鼓风炉炉况研究

【作者】 毛丽娟；

【导师】 唐朝晖；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 密闭鼓风炉铅锌熔炼过程冶金反应机理复杂,具有变量多、非线性、时变、藕合严重的特点,难以用传统的数学模型描述熔炼生产过程。维持炉况稳定是提高锌产量和质量的基本保证。将现有的炉况诊断理论应用于鼓风炉熔炼过程,进行基于炉况诊断的研究,对做好密闭鼓风炉熔炼优化控制是至关重要的,由此可以进一步提高密闭鼓风炉的生产率,减少污染,增加企业的市场竞争力。单位时间锌产量是反映密闭鼓风炉炉况稳定的主要指标,本文研究了基于单位时间锌产量预测的密闭鼓风炉炉况诊断问题。通过对来自生产现场监测参数的历史数据进行过滤处理,应用机理分析和粗糙集方法选择建模变量,建立了基于BP神经网络的单位时间锌产量预测模型;在运用粗糙集方法数据进行处理的过程中,采用基于高斯混合模型的连续数据离散化方法,用SPSS统计软件验证了此离散化方法是行之有效的;基于机理分析和可拓评价方法建立铅锌熔炼密闭鼓风炉炉况诊断模型。在理论研究的基础上,开发了铅锌熔炼密闭鼓风炉炉况诊断系统。系统软件采用Visual C++编程,实现了炉况主要参数在线监视、炉况诊断、数据查询和帮助等功能。现场运行情况表明该系统具有较高的故障诊断准确率和工作可靠性,具有很好的实用特性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Imperial Smelting Furnace (ISF) smelting process is a very complex system with nonlinearity, time variety, coupling and uncertainty and very difficult to describe with conventional mathematics functions. Mainten stability of the Furnace status is basic quarantee of improving production and quality of the Zinc.The ISF status evaluation research based on Zn-output by applying existing evaluation theory into ISFsmelting process is important for the following smelting optimized controlling, Which can improve the productivity, reduce pollution and make plants more competitive.Unit time Zinc-output is confined the key indicators to reflect the status of the ISF. In the thesis, an evaluation approach of ISF status based on unit time Zinc-output forecasting model is used. Original samples are normalized, noise samples are filtrated, and the mechanism analysis and rough set theories are applied to the historical sample data to select variables used for modeling. BP Artificial Neural Network forecasting model is formed to predict the unit time Zinc output. In rough set theories, a new method for discretization of continuous attributes based on Gaussian mixture model is presented. Another method-the SPSS statistical software, is also used, which improved the discretization mothed is efficient. Applying with extension theory, an estimation model based on extension theory of ISF status is built. the results indicated that the extension method is feasible.Based on the theory research, a system of ISF smelting process status evaluation was developed. The software was developed with VC++, realized functions of parameter monitoring, ISF status prediction, data query and help. Debugged and tested in the plant, the reliability of fault diagnosis accuracy of the software have been proved.更多还原