湖南省环境与经济关系的实证分析

【作者】 欧阳春辉；

【导师】 俞政；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 数量经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 当今社会,环境与经济的关系成为人类和谐发展的关键所在。环境与经济的矛盾突出。一方面,经济增长使得工业污染物不断增加,导致环境质量下降。环境问题威胁着人类的生存与发展;另一方面,环境恶化反过来也制约了经济的增长。正是从分析这一矛盾出发,本文力求运用环境经济学、计量经济学的一些基本理论,采用调查分析、资料研究、理论探讨等研究方法,从分析湖南省环境与经济关系入手,基于湖南省1989-2006年所选择的环境指标和经济指标,从实证的角度,运用计量经济学模型分析二者间的数量关系。本文通过协整检验法来检验环境指标与经济指标之间的协整关系,以寻求二者之间长期均衡关系,并且通过向量自回归模型建立向量误差修正模型和通过E-G两步法建立误差修正模型来寻求二者之间短期动态变化关系。接着分析环境指标与经济指标相互影响的短期因果关系。另外利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法考察二者之间相互影响的强度和初期影响情况。最后结合上述分析结果和问题,根据湖南省实际情况,提出保持湖南省环境与经济走循环经济发展道路的对策和建议。本文分五章,第一章主要介绍本文的选题背景,然后介绍本文的研究思路和结构,最后提出本文的创新点和研究意义。第二章主要介绍国内外环境与经济关系的相关文献,提出自己的看法,然后给出环境与经济关系的理论分析,主要是从环境质量与经济增长之间的相互影响方面来分析。第三章主要介绍了本文所要用到的一些计量经济学研究方法,有时间序列模型中的基本概念、单位根检验、协整理论、向量自回归理论。第四章是本文的重点,分为四节:第一节是数据和变量的选取;第二节是单位根检验和协整分析;第三节是因果关系检验;第四节是脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法。后三节每一节都对分析的结果做了详细的分析和小结。第五章是结论及政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, the relation of environment and economy become where the shoe pinches which makes human development harmonious. Conflict of environment and economy extrude. On the one hand, economic increase makes industrialized contamination increased continuously and results in decline in environmental quality. Environmental problems threaten human survival and develop; on the other hand, environmental labefaction restricts economic increase. From analyzing this conflict, this paper uses some basic theories of environment economics and econometrics and adopts some research methods which are diagnoses, information research, theory discuss and so on. This paper starts with empirically analyzing the relation of environment and economy by means of econometric model and on basis of selective environmental index and economic index in Hunan from 1989 to 2006. This paper uses econometric model to analyse quantitative relation between them. Using cointegrate test, This paper tests cointegrate relation between environmental index and economic index to seek long-term equilibrium. Using VAR model and E-G two steps method, this paper sets up VEC model and ECM model to seek short-term dynamic relation. Then, it analyses short-term causality between environmental index and economic index. It uses impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis to review interactional intension and incipient infection in them. Finally, this paper advances countermeasure and advice which can keep environment and economy going the way of circular economy in Hunan.This paper is five chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background, then, it introduces the research way and frame, finally, it advance innovative spot and research meaning in this paper. The second chapter introduces correlative literature about the relation of environment and economy and advances my attitude, then, it introduces theory analysis of environment and economy in aspect of mutual influence between environmental quality and economic increase. The third chapter introduces some econometric research methods, such as basic concept in time series model, unit root test, cointegrate theory and vector autoregression theory. The fourth chapter is textual emphases. The main content of the chapter are as follows: the first passage is choosing data and variable; the second passage is unit root test and cointegrate analysis; the third passage is causality test; the fourth passage is impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. This paper makes detailed analysis and brief summary in last three passages. The fifth passage is conclusion and policy advising.更多还原