【作者】 栗涛；

【导师】 闫宇振； 余梁蜀；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产项目具有投资大、周期长、地域性强、不确定因素多的特点,因此在项目的决策过程中存在大量风险。目前,国内在中小房地产企业项目风险决策方面还没有形成一套比较全面系统的理论和方法,政府相关的管理机构和企业界的风险决策意识还比较薄弱。因此在中小房地产企业项目决策过程中必须对风险有充分认识,并根据自身实力,估算对风险的承受能力,最大限度地把握与防范风险。本文运用贝叶斯决策理论的基本原理和公式,选择一个有代表性的中小房地产企业项目为案例研究对象,在对开发项目研究的基础上,结合项目内外部环境及自身的特点,利用风险识别、风险评估等方法,从投资决策阶段、土地获取阶段、项目建设阶段、租售管理阶段分析了房地产项目开发中存在的风险及产生根源,对重要风险进行估计和评价,并利用贝叶斯决策理论对项目进行定量化的分析,最后根据分析结果做出较为科学的风险决策,对房地产项目的风险决策提供一种具有一定的参考价值的风险决策方法。本论文的目的是对中小房地产企业项目在开发过程中每一个阶段的风险进行风险分析和决策,以求达到风险小而收益高、效益最优化的决策效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Realty project management is an activity which full of complexity and risk,with a long period,intensive regionalism and more uncertain factors,so it always presents a great deal of hazard all along the line.for the moment,a suit of comprehensive systematic theory and method about realty project management risk analysis have not yet emerged in our country, the risk consciousness of administrative agency and business circles is relatively frailty. Therefore the risk within realty project management must be awared sufficiently.Inheritance ability must be estimated based on the strength of realty enterprises,so as to assurance and precaution risk maximally.The paper operate elementary theory of Bayesian decision theory,select representative small and medium realty enterprises as a subject investigated of example case,above the investigative foundation of the development project,combine internal and extemal environment with the enterprise’s specific character,made use of risk identification,risk assessment and other methods,risk and fountainhead of realty exploitation items were analyzed from the stage of investment decision,land perception,item construction and rend of sale supervision,carried out estimation and evaluation to important risk,Bayesian decision theory was used for quantification analyses at realty project,scientific risk management and decision measures were brought forward according to analytical result in the end,it has a certain of reference values to realty project risk management.The purpose of the paper is to proceeding risk analysis and domination in each phase of realty project about the small and medium realty enterprises during the development process, in order to obtain the effect of optimation of benefit and efficiency and decrease the risk at the same time.更多还原