【作者】 肖博；

【导师】 解建仓； 汪妮；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源是社会经济协调健康持续发展的战略性基础资源,也是生态环境系统良性循环的控制性要素,水资源短缺是人类生存、生产及发展正面临的最严重挑战之一。宁夏地区人均水资源严重不足,属于重度缺水地区。资源型缺水给宁夏的经济发展带来严重阻碍,同时也给社会的稳定带来不利的因素。从远期来看,可以通过跨流域调水来解决宁夏乃至黄河流域的缺水问题。从近期来看,只能依靠水资源优化调度,提高水资源利用效率来解决水资源短缺问题。因此本文根据宁夏引黄灌区水量调度的现状,利用系统仿真理论来研究水量调度问题,提出了运用基于事例推理(CBR)的方法来进行水量调度。为使水量调度模型更有效地应用于生产实践,进一步提高当地的水资源管理的信息化水平,本文将CBR技术、Web技术、框架技术、Ajax技术、基于角色的访问控制(RBAC)以及MVC软件设计模式及组件开发的思想等先进的软件设计开发理论和技术应用于宁夏引黄灌区水量调度仿真系统的研发中,进一步推动了水量调度应用软件的发展,具有一定应用创新。实现了对水量调度相关数据信息的综合管理和水量调度业务的实时运用,为水资源调度管理搭建了一个科学决策的平台。通过实例应用,证明了该系统在技术实现上的可行性及合理性。该系统具有较好的扩展性及可移植性,可在此初步研究成果上,进一步扩展实际应用业务,使之完善成为一个水量调度的综合应用服务和决策平台。论文主要内容和成果如下:(1)宁夏引黄灌区目前水量调度方法及其优缺点分析。从传统的径流调节方法到基于系统仿真理论的水量调度方法,对其进行分类和总结,分析各自的优缺点,最后确定利用CBR来进行水量调度。(2)建立河道水量演进模型。建立基于系统仿真理论的河道水量演进模型,阐述了河道水量演进的研究思路和研究方法,给出河道水量演进模型中的参数的确定方法,为下一步水量调度提供决策依据。(3)利用事例推理(CBR)进行水量调度。分析了事例推理方法的基本原理、特点和工作流程,将其应用到水量调度当中去,解决了基于事例推理的水量调度事例表示、检索、修正、保存等关键技术,并以宁夏唐徕渠为例,进行实例分析,说明运用CBR进行实时水量调度的方法步骤。(4)水量调度仿真系统的设计与实现。基于现代信息技术,构建宁夏引黄灌区水量调度仿真系统,为宁夏水量调度的决策、协商和实施提供了一个高效的、可操作的综合信息平台。更多还原

【Abstract】 The water resources are considered as not only strategic foundation resources that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of social and economy, but a factor that controlling the benign cycle between the ecosystem and the environment. The shortage of water resources is one of most serious challenges to human’s living, producing and development. The Ningxia average per person water resources is serious insufficient, belongs extremely lacks the water area.The water resources shortage has brought the serious hindrance to Ningxia’s economical development, simultaneously also gave the society stably disadvantageous factor. From forward looked that, the water resources short problem of the Ningxia and even the Yellow River could be solved by the cross basin water transfer. But, looked from the near future that, the problem only solved by the water resources optimization dispatch and enhances the water resources using efficiency. Therefore this paper according to the water dispatch present situation of the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia, researched the water dispatch problem using the simulation system theory, proposed for the first time carries on the water dispatch using the CBR method.At the same time, for the water dispatch model effectively to apply to the production practice, further enhances the local water resource management information level, the CBR technology, the Web technology, the Frame technology, the Ajax technology, RBAC as well as the MVC software design pattern and the module develops and so on the advanced software design development theory and the technology has applied to water dispatch simulation system research and development in the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia, Further impelled the water dispatch application software development, has the certain application innovation. The water dispatch data information synthesis management and the water dispatch operation real-time utilization has been realized, a scientific policy-making platform for the water dispatch management has been built. Through the example application, this system in technical realization feasibility and the rationality has been proved. This system has a better extension and the probability, may in this preliminary study achievement, further expand practical application operation, made it to perfect into a water dispatch the synthesis application service and the policy-making platform. Paper main contents and achievement outlines as follows:(1) The Water dispatch method and its good and bad points at present of the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia has been analyzed. The water dispatch method such as the traditional runoff adjustment method and based on the simulation system theory has been classified and summarized, and good and bad points of various water dispatch methods has been analyzed, finally determined using CBR for the water dispatch.(2) The course water routing model has been established. River course water routing model based on the simulation system theory has been established, course water routing research mentality and the research technique are expounded, definite method of the parameter of channel water routing model is produced, and the policy-making basis for the next step of water dispatch is provided.(3) Using CBR for water dispatch, the CBR basic principle, the characteristic and the flow of work are analyzed, and applied it to the water dispatch. The CBR essential technology, such as water dispatch case express, the retrieve, the revise, the retain and so on are solved, and taken Ningxia TangLai channel as an example, carried on the example analysis, the process of using CBR real-time water dispatch is explained.(4) Designing and implement of Water dispatch simulation system. Based on the modern information technology, water dispatch simulation system of the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia is constructed, and a highly effective and operational comprehensive information platform for the Ningxia water dispatch decision-making, the consultation and the implementation is provided.更多还原