高原环境弹药储存可靠性及评估方法研究

【作者】 张志会；

【导师】 钱建平；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 火炮、自动武器与弹药工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 我国对弹药储存可靠性的研究起步晚,技术还不成熟,也缺乏严格规范的弹药寿命标准,特别是高原地区弹药的储存可靠性研究极少。高原特殊的气候特征,对弹药储存可靠性的影响,与内地大相径庭,不可盲目套用。尤其是高原部队弹药的报废,没有可供参考的科学依据,只能根据上级通知作出决定。如果未达到弹药实际储存寿命而提前退役,将给国家造成巨大的经济损失,达到弹药实际储存寿命而超期服役,又会增大弹药在储存和使用中的不安全性。可见,高原地区弹药储存可靠性的研究已处于十分突出的地位,有必要对其进行系统研究,摸索弹药储存可靠性下降的规律,为弹药在高原环境储存中的质量评级和销毁提供科学依据。在弹药储存可靠性研究中,利用样本值来估计失效分布的参数值,是一项非常繁琐的工作。常用的估计方法是最大似然估计法,但是进行参数估计时,一般要求解联立的超越方程组,常规迭代算法收敛性差,计算结果误差大,难以得到全局最优解。为了简化计算过程,很多文献提出了各种简单的估计方法,但这些改进方法均具有一些局限性,精度也不高。鉴于此,本文提出了两种改进的算法,通过实例计算,表明经过改进的算法计算简便,结果稳定,对初值要求不严格,精度也很高。本文就高原气候对弹药储存可靠性的影响规律进行了摸索,对国军标关于弹药储存适宜的温、湿度标准提出了疑义,给出了国内外专家和自己认为的标准,并且就如何降低湿度对弹药储存寿命的影响提出了具体的解决办法。对可靠性参数的算法进行了探索,运用改进算法对某迫击炮弹可靠性参数进行估计,求得了该迫击炮弹的失效分布为极小值分布,可靠储存寿命预测值为35年,大于国军标的规定值,也大于高原部队对该弹规定的29年的服役年限。这说明部队对该弹作出报废至少提前了6年,造成了浪费。最后对全文进行了总结,对如何提高弹药储存可靠性提出了建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s ammunition storage reliability study late started, the technology is not yet ripe, but also the lack of strict regulation of ammunition life standards, and ammunition storage reliability on plateau very few. The special characteristics of the plateau climate, the impact on the reliability of munitions storage, and entirely different from the mainland, can not be applied. In particular, retiring ammunition in the plateau, no scientific basis for reference, can only be based on the authorities. If it is not storage life and discharged early, the state will cause huge economic losses to the country.if extended service, it will increase insecurity. Clearly, the reliability of munitions on the plateau is in very prominent position, it is necessary to conduct systematic research, to provide scientific basis to the ammunition stored in the plateau.In ammunition storage reliability study, using samples to estimate the value of the parameters of failure, is very tedious work. The estimation method is commonly used maximum likelihood estimation, conventional iterative algorithm convergence of the poor, the results error, the overall situation can hardly be the optimal solution. To simplify the calculations, many of the literature estimation methods, but these are all ways to improve some limitations, the accuracy is not good. we propose two improved algorithms, the algorithm is simple, stable, not strictly on the initial request, the accuracy is good.Plateau climate of ammunition storage reliability of the impact of a groping, put forward different views about ammunition storage temperature and humidity standards and on how to reduce humidity on the life of ammunition by a specific solution.This article shows a new algorithm for the exploration and the reliability of mortar shells parameters estimated seek the failure of the mortar shells ise minimum distribution, storage life is predictived is 35 years, bigger than the national standard requirements of military, but also larger than plateau forces under the 29 years of service.更多还原