【作者】 崔景龙；

【导师】 叶莉；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 工商管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化和金融一体化的快速发展,在全世界范围内金融危机频繁爆发。我国虽然还没有爆发金融危机,但中国四大国有商业银行的巨额不良贷款也潜伏着巨大的隐患。中国农业银行HB省分行的最大风险来自于其在经营过程中累积的巨额的不良贷款,有效防范和控制不良贷款的发生是中国农业银行HB省分行的首要研究课题。本论文运用比较分析法、归纳分析法和实证研究法分析研究了中国农业银行HB省分行的信用风险成因,特别对HB省分行信贷流程客户部门受理与调查、信贷管理部门审查、贷审会审议与审批、客户部门经营管理四个基本环节进行了分析研究。造成HB省分行不良贷款损失有多种原因,包括外部的和内部的。内部原因主要是HB省分行信贷管理制度存在缺陷,特别是在信贷流程中贷前调查不科学,是HB省分行信贷风险产生的直接原因。所以本论文在现代工商管理管理理论的指导下对HB省分行信贷调查方案进行了再设计,并以统一的信贷调查方法、统一的分析工具、统一的调查标准,建立起统一的标准化的信贷调查模板。本论文首次将波特的五力分析、波士顿矩阵分析、直线回归预测法、量本利分析和SWOT分析融入到信贷调查方案中,可使HB省分行的客户经理在进行企业调查时对借款人未来的现金流进行较精确的测算和预测和科学地对借款人进行全面分析,从而对借款人及时足额归还借款的可能性做出准确判断,对防范银行信贷风险起到积极的指导作用。本论文以河北JS公司的流动资金贷款调查作为实证研究分析后,得出以下结论:在现有的HB省分行的信贷从业人员不能进行大的调整的情况下,以统一调查方法、统一分析工具、统一调查标准,并建立统一的标准化的信贷调查模板的信贷调查方案设计,是中国农业银行HB省分行信用风险防范的最直接和有效措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the quick development of economic globalization and financial integration, financial crisis breaks out frequently in the worldwide. Though in our country there has never been a crisis, there is hidden trouble in the large amount of non-performing loans of Chinese four state-owned commercial banks. The biggest risk of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China is the big accumulated sum of non-performing loans in its running process. Effective precaution and control of the occurrence of non-performing loans is the chief research topic of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. Due to the aim and meaning of this research, in the paper the author makes a research on the cause of formation of credit risk in Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China with the method of comparative analysis, inductive method, and empirical method. Especially credit flow customers department acceptation and research, credit management department investigation, loans investigation meeting examination and approval, and customer department operation and management are analyzed and studied. There are a lot of reasons of non-performing loans in Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China, including internal reasons and external ones. Internally there are defects in the managing rules of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. The direct reason for the credit risk is that the investigation before the credit is not reasonable. Under the guidance of modern business administration theory, the author redesigns the credit investigation program for Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China and builds a uniform standardized credit investigation template according to the uniform credit investigation method, uniform analyzing tools and uniform investigation standards.In this paper, approach to Poter’s five-force analysis, approach to Boston consulting group matrix, approach to linear-regression analysis, mathematical approach to cost-volume-profit analysis, and approach to SWOT analysis are combines to the credit investigation program. This method can help the customer managers of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China to calculate and predict the borrowers’future cash flow, and to analyze the borrowers generally and scientifically. Therefore, they can decide accurately the possibility of borrowers’returning the loans timely and completely, which can have positive directing function for preventing credit risks.After the empirical research and analysis of circulating fund of Hebei JS company, the following statement is concluded: in the situation that the present credit staff can not be adjusted in a large scale, the credit investigation program design of using the uniform credit investigation method, uniform analyzing tools and uniform investigation standards to form a uniform standardized credit investigation template is the most direct and most effective measure to prevent credit risks of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China.更多还原