浙江省入境旅游规模差异研究

【作者】 徐菁；

【导师】 沙润；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 在开放的市场环境下,系统内的旅游差异将永远存在。现实中这种差异已经成为常态,而对这种区域差异发展现象的研究也成为现今旅游研究的热点问题。本文以规模差异研究为切入点,通过计算浙江省1991-2006年11个地级市的入境旅游规模分布数据,即对差异在时间上和空间上的演变进行描述和分析。又运用城市地理学中的相关理论对浙江省入境旅游的位序-规模情况进行研究。前者以绝对平均为标尺来衡量差异,建立在系统应保持均值发展的理论假设上,尽管也符合差异的趋势,但所得到的差异值客观上放大了旅游发展的差异程度。而后本文探索一种更符合实际的差异研究方法。用等级-规模来衡量差异,并验证了模型的合理性。本文得到;(1)浙江省的入境旅游已经出现均衡化发展的环境,差异逐渐缩小,首位度下降,区域发展出现集中化趋势。(2)在差异演变过程中所经历的95年之前的快速下降期、95-00年的稳定下降期和01年以后的快速波动下降期,是政策导向、经济基础、交通条件、资源开发、事件影响等多因素综合作用的结果。(3)北部地区内差异是现阶段差异的主要作用力,而南北地区间差异是决定浙江省入境旅游规模总体差异的关键。(4)浙江省入境旅游规模差异分布符合位序-规模发展模型。(5)用理想状态的捷夫模型计算得到的差异远小于传统方法计算下的差异,使差异值均在合理范围之内,并呈下降趋势,这使本文找到了衡量区域旅游差异的一种合理方法。本文立足于促进浙江省入境旅游的有序差异发展这一核心命题,用定量的方法综合反映差异发展情况,并对区域有序差异发展的策略进行探讨,以期对区域旅游发展政策的制定等宏观决策提供理论层面的参照。首先,本人总结前人的研究经验,选取变异系数、基尼系数、首位度、赫芬达尔和锡尔熵这五个最为常见的差异研究指标,对浙江省1991-2006的入境旅游规模分布数据进行处理和计算,得到了浙江省入境旅游规模的总体差异变化规律以及南北地区间、地区内、各市间的差异演变情况及贡献率。而后,为了避免上述传统研究方法基于绝对平均目标下的差异研究这一局限,考虑到现实中的区域发展往往存在一种合理的等级结构,从而使其成为一种有机增长的组织系统。因而本文借用城市地理学中的位序-规模理论进行差异的进一步研究。通过历年数据的回归分析得到,浙江省入境旅游规模符合罗特卡模型,且历年的拟合度均很高。基于这一基础,本文假设区域入境旅游规模发展的理想状态也应如城市地理学规定,符合捷夫模型,从而计算了理想状态下的变异系数、基尼系数、首位度和赫芬达尔系数的值,将其与前面计算出的历年实际值相比,得到差距值,用一种新的评价视角来衡量区域旅游规模差异,从而发现:用位序-规模的方法进行衡量,浙江省入境旅游规模差异远没有传统方法计算所得来得大。而且各指标的历年演变曲线也符合前面得到的三个时间段划分。因而本文认为,捷夫模型应成为衡量浙江省入境旅游规模有序差异发展的一种合理方法。最后,基于将浙江省入境旅游规模引向合理有序发展的目标,本文深入分析了经济的发展水平(人均GDP)、城市职能(优势产业和优秀旅游城市)、交通可达性(机场、铁路)、资源分布(A级景区数量与等级)、重大事件(节庆及主题年)五项影响因子与位序规模分布的相关性,并提出有序差异发展的具体策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tour developed with an unbalanced state is normal in today’s tourist economy activities. The study on the diversity of tour has been the hot issue of tour-research nowadays. Takimg the scalar data of in-bound tourists in Zhejiang province from 1991 to 2006 as the study basic, this paper uses region development theory, equilibrium rise theory, primacy distribution theory, rate-size theory, economy rise theory and any other theories to study the in-bound tourism diversity of Zhejiang province. It finds out some results as follows:Firstly, diversity as a whole is reducing gradually with the slowing pace, this course can be carved up three phases; the diversity between north region and south one is more than diversity in the region, the diversity in north region is the main contributory for regional diversity of in-country tourist in Zhejiang. Secondly, the distributing of in-country tourist size can be regarded as primacy distribution, and it also measured up the size-rank rule. But different size-rank can be detected in different year, the rule of distribution is unceasing changing dynamicly. Thirdly, the rank of in-country tourist size of each city in Zhejiang is not absolutely coupling with its personal GDP, city function orientation and tourist resounse, aerodrome doesn’t have the pertinency as tightly as high rank throughway, the important event will exert more and more efficience with it coming. Fourthly, according to the different region, the paper also gives some developing strategies, which includes nuclear controlling, united with inside and outside capital, second subdivision and etc.The firstly in arranging the consecution of this paper, taking the study on regional economic diversity and regional tourist diversity home and aboard as basic of thory, it reckons on the in-bound tourist data of Zhejiang province from 1991 to 2006 with Variation coefficient, Gini coefficient, Primacy degree, Hirshman coefficient and Theil coefficient. It analyzes the evolvement rules and characters of diversity as whole and structurally.Then, in case that the deep reason of envolving of regional in-bound tourist diversity is changing of size distribution, the paper introduces the pertinent thories of unban geography. With four phase size data, it represents the envolvement of in-bound tourist size of Zhejiang and concludes four styles of city in rank envolving. At the same time, the paper uses Pareto distribution to checkout that the rank and size of city’s in-bound tourist distribution are coupling well, it also answers for the rule of rank-size distribution. But the rank of size is not same in different year. The rule of distribution is always incessant changing and this change represents some orderliness.Ulteriorly, for reflecting the rationalization level of in-bound tourist size diversity of Zhejiang more impersonally, the paper fetches out the study on rational equilibrium. It use method of absolute value and proportion to discuss the level of relative diversity or rational equilibrium of in-bound tourist size of Zhejiang province.Lastly, Taking the reference before as basic, the dissertation analyzes the pertinence of five factors including economic development level, urban function, traffic available, resource distribution and important cases, consequently brings forward the strategies of ordinal equilibrium development of in-bound tourism.更多还原