贝叶斯认识论初探

【作者】 时光；

【导师】 陈真；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 科学技术哲学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 贝叶斯认识论是以18世纪英国长老会牧师贝叶斯(Thomas Bayes,1702—1761)所提出的贝叶斯定理(即P(h|e)=P(e|h)P(h)/P(e))为基础,再加上简单规则(即一个人得到辩护地相信假说h,当且仅当h的概率非常高)而发展起来的一种认识论理论。广义而言,贝叶斯认识论则泛指关于概率归纳的所有主观主义理论。传统的认识论认为能被我们接纳的知识必须是完全可靠的。反映在评判标准上,则表现为所评价的对象不是被证实就是被否证。但事实上,我们对世界的任何认识,包括知觉判断,其实都是一种假说,都存在着被否证的可能性,而被否证的假说也都存在着起死回生的可能性。关键是如何根据新的证据对已有的假说进行评价。另一方面,随着科学哲学的发展,随着概率论的发展,一种知识评价的盖然性的标准,即概率归纳逐步被哲学家们所接受。而贝叶斯认识论则为一个假说在新的证据(可能肯定也可能否定假说)的条件下对其进行评价提供了一种计算的方法和思路。这一方法作为一种决策论在各行各业得到了广泛的运用,显示了强大的生命力。但它本身也引起了许多争论。本文试图对贝叶斯认识论的来龙去脉以及围绕它所展开的争论进行梳理,并阐明其理论和现实的意义。本文的前言部分阐明了本论文论题的研究意义和国内外研究的历史与现状以及研究方法和创新点。第一章着重介绍了贝叶斯认识论的有关理论背景。第二章着重介绍了各种概率概念,这是了解贝叶斯认识论的基础。第三章是本文的核心部分,具体介绍了贝叶斯认识论的各个方面,包括其核心内容,以及从核心内容(纯理论内容)到贝叶斯统计推断和决策理论(应用理论)的自然过渡。第四章集中讨论了对贝叶斯认识论的批评以及可能的回应。结语部分提出笔者对贝叶斯认识论总的评价和看法,并从理论和应用两方面说明其重大意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) is a British Presbyterian minister in 18th century. Bayesian epistemology is a theory of knowledge that developed from Bayesian theorem (i.e. P(h|e) = P(e|h)P(h)/P(e)) and the Simple Rule (i.e. a person is justified in believing hypothesish, if and only if the probability of his very high). In a broad sense, Bayesian epistemology makes a general reference about all of the subjectivist theories concerning probable induction.According to traditional epistemology, our knowledge must be completely reliable. This is reflected in the standards of evaluation, according to which, what is evaluated is either confirmed or falsified. But in fact, all of our knowledge about the world, including perceptual judgments, consists of just hypotheses. Those hypotheses risk being falsified and even if they are defeated, they are still possibly to be restored. The most important thing is how to assess a hypothesis according to new evidence. On the other hand, in the wake of developments in the philosophy of science and in the probability theory, a kind of probable standard for knowledge evaluation, namely the probable induction, is gradually accepted by philosophers. Bayesian epistemology provides a computation method for assessing hypotheses when new evidence (may confirm or disconfirm a hypothesis) comes up. As a kind of decision theory, this method has obtained widespread application in various areas and has demonstrated the formidable vitality, though it has also caused a lot of controversy.This article attempts to clarify the long and short story of Bayesian epistemology as well as the argument involved, and to expound its significance on theory and reality. The foreword part of this article has expounded researching significance, domestic and foreign researching situation, researching method and innovation spots. First chapter introduces the theory background relating Bayesian epistemology emphatically. Second chapter introduces each kind of probability concept emphatically. And this is the foundation for understanding Bayesian epistemology. Third chapter is the core part of this article. It introduces each aspect of Bayesian epistemology specifically, including its core content, as well as the natural transition from core content (pure theory content) to Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory (application theory). The fourth chapter discusses the criticism to Bayesian epistemology as well as the possible responses. The conclusion is author’s general attitude to Bayesian epistemology, and it explains its great significance from the theory to application.更多还原