中国现阶段国际收支失衡问题研究

【作者】 李涵硕；

【导师】 许崇正；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 金融， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 本文首先从国际收支平衡表入手,通过对2001年至2006年我国国际收支结构的深入解析,进一步明确了导致我国国际收支“双顺差”的具体项目和直接原因,即以加工贸易出口为主要特点的货物贸易顺差和国外直接投资的迅猛增长。在此基础上,本文联系相关国内和国际的影响因素,分析导致上述问题的深层原因。经过深入分析得出现阶段造成我国国际收支失衡的主要原因是在经济全球化的背景下,国内经济发展失衡不断累积的外部表现。具体原因有:第一、长期外向型经济发展战略下形成的政策引导效应;第二、国际产业分工结构与国内大量廉价劳动力形成的“比较优势”的共同作用;第三、国内储蓄和投资长期失衡的影响;第四、未记录跨境资本形成的部分贸易顺差。“双顺差”作为我国国际收支失衡的表现形式,其大规模、持续地发生对我国经济产生了诸多负面影响,由其所引发的流动性过剩及商品价格、资产价格上涨压力加大等问题日益突出,货币政策的操作有效性受到严重影响,同时造成大量实际资源和资产配置不合理,积累了大量的风险因素,不利于国内经济的发展。针对以上情况,本文提出相应政策措施,一方面妥善解决现阶段国际收支大规模双顺差问题,另一方面,改善我国国际收支结构内在的脆弱性。具体措施有:第一、适度调整我国对外经济政策,改善国际收支结构;第二、采取有效措施,改变我国储蓄和投资失衡状况,进而改善国际收支结构;第三、完善汇率形成机制和外汇管理制度;第四、积极实行企业“走出去”战略,为企业海外投资和发展创造有利条件;第五、加强国际合作,营造良好国际环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper makes deep analysis of the causes of our country’s unbalance of international payment on the base of reviewer of related documents and makes suggestions of solving the problems. This paper first starts from the balance sheet, make certain of the concrete items which lead to the double favorable balance and thedirect causes of the unbalance——the surplus of goods items characterized with theprocessing trade and the rapid increase of foreign direct investment. Then this paper makes analysis of the deep reasons combined with domestic and international influencing factors. The reasons are as followings: first the effect of the policies under long-term outside economic developing strategy. Second, the combination effect of the division of international industry and the comparative advantage of massive amount of domestic cheap labors; third, the long-term unbalance of domestic savings and investment; fourth, the capital flowed cross countries which is not recorded.As a presentation of unbalance of international payment, the double favorable balance brings a lot of negative effects to our country. The excess liquidity problem and the pressure of inflation are predominant; the effect of currency policy has been diminished; the distribution of our country’s capital and resources are unreasonable.To solve the above problems, we should make changes in the following aspects. First, adjust our foreign policies; second, take effective measures to change the situation of unbalance of domestic savings and investment; improve the foreign formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate and the exchange management system; fourth, encourage companies to invest aboard and make better situation for them; last, strengthen the cooperation with other countries.更多还原