【作者】 端木青；

【导师】 祝锡萍；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工业大学 ， 工商管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 每一个企业都不可避免地面临着财务风险,随着我国市场经济的发展,企业出现破产及陷入财务困境现象的频率也越来越高,尤其是上市公司,一旦陷入财务危机将造成各方面的影响,带来比较严重的后果。因而对上市公司财务风险进行检测和预警对企业的生存和发展具有重要的作用。目前,国内外对企业财务预警系统的研究多数只限于对某一类企业预警模型的研究,另外,只有很少的企业建立了财务预警系统,主要是缺乏理论指导。本文首先对财务风险的内涵及特征进行阐述,并论述财务风险管理的作用及必要性,在对国内外财务风险管理进行比较的基础上,深入探讨了构建我国财务预警系统的相关理论,大胆设计了该系统的组织、运行及责任机制。对该系统的分析方法从定性与定量两方面进行了研究。通过对我国企业实际情况的分析,选取比较有说服力的偿债、盈利、发展能力等指标,建立多元线性函数模型对企业财务风险进行评估和预警。通过对随机选取的实证数据进行分析,其结果表明该方法在仅利用上市公司对外公布的财务数据的前提下,具有较好的对企业财务状况和风险状况进行评价预警的能力。通过对上市公司财务预警体系的研究,旨在为企业建立跟踪、监控、预警、排警的企业财务预警系统提供理论指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 Every enterprise faces financial risk during its production and management in the market economy .During the development of the market economy, it’s more possible for Chinese enterprise to meet bankrupty and other financial puzzledom in their operation .it’s more and more important to find an efficient way to manage the financial risk, especially to the public company .if the company is in financial trouble ,it might lead to serious results ,so it is important to gauge financial risk and set up warning model.At present,the research to financial crisis-predicting system both home and abroad is mostly the research of a certain kind of enterprise crisis-predicting model. In addition, only a few enterprises establish the financial crisis-redicting system and their main problems are lacking the theoretical guide. In the first place ,the author introduces the intesions and characteristic of financial risk .and has described the function and the necessity of financial risk management .Based on the achievements of the predecessors devoted to the research of this field, this paper makes a thorough discussion on relative theories of how to establish a financial crisis-predicting system and boldly designs financial mechanics of organizing, running and responsibility system.We make a further study on the system with a method of quantitative and qualitative analysis by presenting practical example system.Based on the analysis of the real conditions of domestic companies and the con- vincing index ,The multi-variable linear function models have been esta- blished to evaluate and forecast the company financial risk .The validity of this method is proven by analyzing the company’s stochastic chosen real data. The results shows the method has the favorable evaluation and fo- recast abilities of company financial status and risk degrees on condition that only the published data of company can be used.Therefore, the enterprise can avoid the damage that might be caused by the crisis.更多还原