【作者】 张莹；

【导师】 杨文川；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 软件工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济高速稳定发展,商业往来日益频繁,在我国快递市场全面开放后,无论是外资快递,还是国内民营快递,都将对中国邮政快递业务发展形成巨大的冲击,中国邮政快递的存量客户正在被其他公司瓜分,企业争夺的焦点最终还是占20%VIP客户。快递企业发展到今天,无论从生产作业,还是到经营管理越来越离不开技术的支撑,而在所有的技术当中,数据库技术是企业技术核心。怎样利用好数据库技术对大客户用邮情况进行实时分析,对客户流失倾向进行预警,指导企业对有流失倾向的客户进行客户挽留,对即将流失的客户进行“返抢”,同时如何有效防止老客户流失等问题,对快递企业来讲都是一个新课题。有关研究显示,吸引新客户的成本至少是保持老客户成本5倍,所以认真分析客户流失原因,预测客户流失倾向,防止老客户流失,增加客户对企业信任度,对企业管理来讲的至关重要。激烈的市场竞争是建立数据仓库的外在动力,快递企业自身发展的要求是数据仓库应用的内在动力。本论文主要重点探讨了以下几个问题:1、对企业进行客户流失分析必须构建企业现代化的客户流失分析系统。2、对快递企业客户流失概念进行定义,并基于数据仓库技术对客户流失分析系统的系统设计、数据预处理设计等。3、研究客户流失的目的,是为了有效防止现有客户的流失,增加老客户对企业的忠诚度,本文提出了防止客户流失的几点措施。4、针对目前系统中分析客户流失的功能方面的不足,并对系统后期建设进行展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid and stable development of economy, the business communication becomes more and more frenquently. After the opening of our express market, either overseas investment express enterprises or domestic private express enterprises will have a tremendous impact on the development of China Post Express. China Post Express whose clients have been divided up by other companies will focus on the VIP clients which occupy 20 % of the market.Developping to now, express enterprise cannot part from the support of technology whether production and operation or management, and that among all the technology, the database technology is the core of enterprise technology. How to make good use of database technology to carry through real time analyzing of the usaging situation of the big clients, to give the early tendency warning of customer churn to the enterprise, to guide the enterprise to retain its clients who have the tendency to lost, to ’get back’ the losing clients, and to effectively prevent the loss of clients and so on, are all the new topic to the Express Enterprises. The research shows the cost of attracting new clients is at least five times that to keep old clients. Thus that carefully analyzing of the reasons for the loss of clients, forecasting the tendency of losing clients, preventing the loss of clients, and increasing customer confidence in the enterprise play the most important role in the management of enterprise.The fierce market competition is the external power for the establishment of data warehouse, and the requirement of express enterprises’ self development is the internal one of the data warehouse operation.This paper focuses on the following questions:1. The premise to make a customer churn analysis is that we must build modern enterprise customer churn analysis system.2. To definite the concept of customer churn and to make a system design to the customer churn analysis system、to make a design to data pre-treatment ,based on Data Warehouse (DW) technology.3. The purpose of customer churn analysis is to effectively prevent the loss of existing clients and to increase the corporate clients’ loyalty. Some measures have been proposed in this paper.4. This paper is mainly focus on the inadequacies of the present system, and we will have a grand outlook of the late building of the system.更多还原