上海成灾台风的气象特征及灾害风险评估

【作者】 孟菲；

【导师】 康建成；

【作者基本信息】 上海师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 依据1949~2005年中国气象局上海台风研究所的实测数据、台风年鉴资料及前人的研究成果,对上海成灾台风的气象特征、成灾状况及各地区的台风灾害风险度进行分析,其结果显示:(1)在过去50年中,上海成灾台风年均生成1.5个、年际变化明显;均出现在5~10月,8月份是活跃期;路径中登陆转向类的最多,直接登陆上海的最少;其生成源地主要集中在130°E~150°E和10°N~20°N的海域。(2)上海成灾台风在厄尔尼诺年的生成次数略少于反厄尔尼诺年;其生成频数与上海区域年平均气温变化呈正相关,有可能在全球增温的大背景下数目会继续增加。(3)人员伤亡、农田受淹面积和房屋倒损这3个灾情参数在近50年里有一定变化,但上海台风综合灾情指数变化幅度不大,从1980年代开始有上升趋势;成灾台风灾情指数与吕泗站最大风速和过程雨量成正相关;吴淞口、黄埔公园的潮位站数据与成灾台风直接经济损失对应性较好。(4)利用ArcGIS空间分析模块,分析上海不同地区的台风灾害综合风险:①极有可能成灾的区域:崇明岛,金山区,台风成灾概率大于95%。②很可能成灾区域:青浦区,奉贤区的庄行镇、南桥镇、金汇镇、柘林镇、青村镇、奉城镇6镇,台风成灾概率大于90%。③可能成灾区域:松江区、浦东新区、南汇区大冶河两岸地区,台风成灾概率大于66%。④多半可能成灾区域:长兴岛,宝山区,市中心区域,奉贤区的海湾镇和四团镇,台风成灾概率大于50%。⑤或许可能成灾区域:嘉定区,闵行区,台风成灾概率为33%～66%。⑥不可能成灾区域:主要为沿江、沿海的江堤、海堤,地势极高,包括松江区内淀浦河一线,南汇区大治河以及南部的人民塘河等河流线,浦东新区、南汇区、奉贤区沿海堤坝,横沙岛,风险度极低,台风成灾概率小于33%。⑦很不可能成灾区域:黄浦江一线,嘉定区的蕰藻浜及其南北走向的分支河流,松江区内的西佘山、东佘山等山脉,地势极高,这些区域台风综合风险度最低,台风成灾概率小于10%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of 1949~2005 from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration/ Typhoon Yearbooks and the previous research, The calamitous typhonic meteorological characteristics, status of damages and risk analysis in different areas were Analyzed. The result as follows:(1)in the past 50 years, the calamitous typhoons occurred 1.5 per year on average and decennial change was obvious; The calamitous typhoons mainly occurred form May to October and August was the high risky period; The main type of calamitous typhoons affecting Shanghai are the ones which change of their directions after landing. There are some few of them landing Shanghai directly; Most of calamitous typhoons were found between 130°E~150°E and 10°N~20°N.(2)The calamitous typhoons appeared lesser in El Nino years than anti-El Nino years; The quantity of calamitous typhoon is related with the annual temperature of Shanghai, the study shows that the quantity of calamitous typhoon would increase because of the globe warming. ( 3 ) The calamitous parameters including casualties, inundated cropland area and collapsed-damaged houses are changed in the recent 50 years. But no remarkable changes take palce in synthetic disaster indexes. Since the 1980s, the disaster indexes have increased; The disaster indexes of the calamitous typhoons were positively associated with the maximum wind speed and total precipitation at Lusi tide station. The data form Wusong and Huangpu Prak tidal stations show a good relationship with the direct economic loss caused by the calamitous typhoon.(4)Using spatial analysis module of ArcGIS to analyze the typhonic estimation of risk degree of Shanghai in different areas:①the regions which have the most possibility to cause disasters including Chongming island, Jinshan District, the probability is more than 95%.②the regions which have the better possibility to cause disasters including Qingpu District, Zhuang Xing Town, Nanqiao Town, Jin Hui town, Zhelin Town, Qin Cun Town and Feng Cheng Town of Fengxian District, the probability is more than 90%.③the regions which likely causes disaster including Songjiang District, Pudong New District, along the banks of Nanhui District, the probability is more than 66%.④the regions which have the possibility to cause disasters including Changxing Island, the Baoshan District, Downtown of Shanghai, Bay Town and Four Groups Town of Fengxian District, the probability is more than 50%.⑤the regions which may cause disasters including Jiading District, Minhang District, the probability is between 33%~66%.⑥the regions which unlikely cause disasters including the dike and seawall along the rivers, the highland along the line of Dian Pu Rive in Songjiang District , the line of Da Ye Rive and People’s Pond River in NanHui District , the seawall of Pudong New District, Nanhui District, Fengxian District, the risk degree is extremely low, the probability is less than 33%.⑦the regions which is impossibility to cause disasteers including Huangpu River, Wen Zao River and it’s branch rivers run north and south in Jiading District, Dong She mountain、Xi She mountain etc, the topography is extremely high, the risk is the lowest, the probability is less than 10%.更多还原