【作者】 徐青；

【导师】 万解秋；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 2002年8月,摩根斯坦利亚洲首席经济学家谢国忠在一篇名为《Bursting Property Bubble?(房地产泡沫会破灭吗?)》的英文研究报告中指出,由于中国目前资本过剩,高收益率正吸引着越来越多的资本投入房地产,他担心房地产有可能出现泡沫现象。自从这篇报告问世以来,社会各界,包括政府官员、知名学者、业内人士等关于我国房地产业是否出现过热或泡沫的文章、言论,不断出现在媒体上。本文的主要任务就是研究2000-2007年的苏州市房地产市场是否存在泡沫。本文在理论回顾的基础上,运用指标指示法、理论价格法和统计检验法对苏州市房地产泡沫进行多角度测度,借助功效系数法建立房地产泡沫的预警系统并对苏州市房地产泡沫进行实证研究。最终得出的结论是,苏州市房地产市场处于健康发展状态,基本无泡沫。在此基础上,就苏州市房地产市场的潜在泡沫提出了一些风险的防控和相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The top economist called Xie Guozhong in Morgan Stanley wrote an English research report named《Bursting Property Bubble?》in August, 2002. He indicated that high yield was attracting more and more capital diving into real estate on account of capital overmuch in China. He was afraid that bubbles had appeared in Chinese real estate. Since the advent of this report, all communities, including government officials、famous scholars etc. have written many articles about whether China’s real-estate is overheating or existing bubble.The main task of this article is to study whether there is bubble exist in Suzhou’s real-estate market from 2000 to 2007. Based on theoretical analysis, the article use the method of indicator-tracing、theoretical-price、statistics-test to measure the bubble of Suzhou’s real-estate market. By the means of efficiency-coefficient method, we make empirical analysis on the basic of the foundation of the early-warning system. Finally we get the conclusion that the real-estate market of Suzhou is in the situation of healthy development, basically no bubble. On the basis, we propose some risk-guard control policies to the latent bubble in real-estate market of Suzhou.更多还原