云南水电CDM项目的区域开发潜力评价研究

【作者】 张红蕾；

【导师】 邓钢；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism简称CDM)是《京都议定书》框架下引入的灵活履约机制之一。CDM项目产生的温室气体减排数额作为发达国家履行他们所承诺的减排量,而发展中国家合作方通过CDM项目的实施,获得资金援助和先进技术。清洁发展机制(CDM)是能使区域经济获得生态环境保护与经济发展“双赢”的机制。目前,国内外对CDM项目的开发潜力分析评价主要从两个方面考虑,其一是应用专业性的数学模型进行分析,从国际角度来探讨并确定中国的CDM分部门潜力;其二为在研究区域范围内,根据研究地区的资源优势归纳出研究区域建立CDM项目的潜力。第一种方法专业性比较强,并且是定量化的表现了CDM开发建设的潜力,专业的数据表格图形对非专业人士来说,比较艰涩难懂,难于对CDM项目相关信息进行推广普及,致使许多适合开发的项目没有被发现;第二种分析方法只是对CDM项目开发各项优势的列举,汇总得出结论,特别对水电CDM项目的开发,都是从区域水能开发能力考虑的。两种方法都是从大范围区域考虑分析CDM潜力的,因此作者提出应用GIS技术对水电CDM小区域性的开发潜力进行评价分析,小区域范围内确定评价因子,以图形可视化的方式评价研究区域水电CDM潜力,为相关管理部门提供辅助决策。本文以云南省为研究区域,对影响水电CDM开发的因子进行分析,筛选出人均GDP增长率、单位GDP能耗、单位GDP电耗、降水量、水力发电量、水电比重、各地区每平方公里产水量、年径流深、CDM信息推广等9个参评因子;根据收集到的相关数据,分析了各参评因子与水电CDM项目开发的关系,并参考专家的意见,完成了各因子的级别划分;采用层次分析法确定了各参评因子的权重,从而最终建立了云南省水电CDM潜力评价指标体系。以构建的云南省水电CDM潜力评价指标体系为核心,在对云南省水电CDM潜力评价信息系统进行详细分析的基础上,对系统的数据处理流程、总体结构及主要功能等进行了较为完整的设计;采用面向对象编程思想,利用可视化开发语言Visual C++和ESRI公司的ArcGIS Engine组件式开发平台,实现了云南省水电CDM潜力评价信息系统。最后,应用云南省2000年-2006年的评价因子量化数值,利用该系统对研究区进行了水电CDM潜力评价,即云南省水电CDM潜力综合评价,评价结果与目前云南省水电CDM开发状况基本一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Clean Development Mechanism（CDM）provides industrialized countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries to achieve a reduction in CO₂ emissions at a low cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country.The Clean Development Mechanism is a "win-win" mechanism,which makes regional economy to get environmental protection and economic development.There are two ways reportedly to study the potential of the CDM projects.The first is the application of professional analysis of relevant mathematical models,from the international point of view to explore and identify the CDM potential in the study area;the second is only taking into account the resource advantages of the study area.The first method is relatively strong professional.Applying the second method to evaluate the CDM potential,the time and the degree of the regional economic development and so on are not considered.The author put forward that we evaluate the CDM potential of the small hydropower in a graphical visualization way by applying GIS technology;the method can provide the decision-making reference for the relevant departments.This paper deals with the relations between the small hydropower CDM projects and influence indexes,based on the field investigation data and the referenced opinions of the experts.The small hydropower CDM regional potential assessing system is established through a series process such as analysis of relations between the influencing indexes and the CDM potential.Every index is decided through the relevant mathematical ways,and its weight is drawn by the AHP method.The factors in the small hydropower CDM regional potential assessing system include the per capita GDP growth rate,unit GDP energy consumption,unit GDP power consumption,precipitation,hydroelectric power capacity, regional water productivity per square kilometer,runoff,and the CDM message.Taking the small hydropower CDM assessing system as the core part,this paper described the design of the total structure,data process,main function and so on of the small hydropower CDM assessing information system.With OOP idea,based on the.NET Framework frame and ArcGIS Engine,the small hydropower CDM assessing information system is established. Finally,the assess system is applied in the study of the regional CDM potential of small hydropower in the province of Yunnan,and the comprehensive evaluation result is nearly the same as the real life situation.更多还原