【作者】 孟凡召；

【导师】 刘晓君；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,商品住宅产业发展迅猛,已成为经济发展的支柱产业,商品住宅也日益成为重要的投资工具。商品住宅的财务分析是整个商品住宅开发过程中的关键环节,它的成败将直接影响开发项目能否顺利进行。在商品住宅产业日臻成熟、竞争日益激烈的今天,决策者越来越重视对财务分析方法的分析与研究。如何运用科学有效的评价方法对商品住宅项目进行财务分析,是决策者迫切需要解决的问题。传统财务分析方法是当前房地产企业采取的主要分析工具,这些工具为房地产企业理性投资、促进商品住宅产业的健康发展起到了巨大的作用。但是,传统财务分析方法本身具有局限性,主要是忽视了商品住宅投资中的不确定性和动态灵活性所带来的价值,容易导致企业不能正常决策,放弃有利的投资机会。基于此,本文将实物期权方法引入到商品住宅财务分析中,基于期权理论的实物期权方法把项目的净现值加上一个期权价值作为项目的价值,从而弥补了传统财务分析方法的不足,是一种更为合理的财务分析方法。本文首先介绍了传统财务分析理论和实物期权理论,然后深入分析了针对商品住宅项目如何进行传统财务分析和实物期权分析,最后,运用传统财务分析方法和实物期权分析方法对某商品住宅开发项目进行了实证分析。实物期权是研究实物投资的一种新方法,并逐渐地趋向成熟。本文结合实物期权理论领域研究的成果,将实物期权方法应用于商品住宅财务分析。实物期权理论应用于商品住宅财务分析,并不是对传统财务分析方法的简单否定,而是在保留传统财务分析方法合理内核的基础上,对传统财务分析方法固有的局限性进行了突破和进一步的发展,此评价方法对我国商品住宅财务分析是一个有益的探索,具有较高的理论意义和实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the commercial residential industry is developing rapidly, which has become a pillar industry of economic development, the commercial residential has become increasingly important investment vehicle.The financial analysis of the commercial residential is the key link in the whole developing process of commercial residential, it will directly affect that development projects can proceed smoothly. Now the commercial residential industry is daily mature and increasingly competitive, policy makers more and more emphasis on the analysis of financial analysis and research. How to use scientific and effective evaluation method analysis the commercial residential financial, policy-makers urgently need to address the problem.Traditional financial analysis approach is taken by the current real estate enterprises as the main tools for rational investment in real estate enterprises, which has played a great role in promoting the healthy development of the housing industry. However, the traditional financial analysis methods have their own limitations, mainly ignored the value brought by the uncertainty and flexibility in the commercial residential investment, which easily lead that enterprises make normal decisions and give up the favourable investment opportunities. Based on that, the article will introduce real options approach to the commercial residential financial analysis.based on option theory of real options approach to the project with a net present value of option value as the value of the project, which makes up the traditional financial analysis methods, The shortage is a more reasonable financial analysis methods.The article first introduced the theory of traditional financial analysis and real options theory, and then for commodity-depth analysis of the residential project how the traditional financial analysis and real options analysis, finally, the use of traditional financial analysis methods and real options analysis of a commodity residential Positive development projects carried out analysis.Real option is a new method on the research of real investment, which tends to mature gradually. Based on the field of real options theory, real options analysis method has been applied to the commercial residential financial analysis. Real options theory is applied to the commercial residential financial analysis,it is not the traditional methods of simple denial, but retain the traditional financial analysis methods on the basis of reasonable core of traditional financial analysis of the inherent limitations of a breakthrough and further The development of this evaluation method on Chinese commercial residential financial analysis is a useful exploration, which has a high theoretical and practical value.更多还原