【作者】 钟石头；

【导师】 刘晓君；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 城市住宅为居住在城市里的人们提供栖息之地，已成为整个城市系统不可或缺的一部分。住宅价值不可能独立于整个城市系统之外存在，住宅价值随着城市的发展、社会的改革、技术的革新、人们生活习惯的改变、宏观经济形势的变化而变化。本文把住宅价值分为位置成本、农业机会成本、生产成本、开发利润四部分。首先在理想城市假设条件的限制下，建立了以空间距离为自变量的线性城市住宅价值分布函数P=p₀-k·x，分析了居民收入、交通费用、时间价值、公共设施、空气污染、噪声污染、通货膨胀对理想城市住宅价值分布的影响，并研究了城市边缘住宅价值。然后，放宽理想城市假设条件的限制，借鉴城市经济学的研究方法，以空间为中心，以城市经济发展水平为依据，建立非线性城市住宅价值分布函数P（x）=-t/j∫1/H（x）dx，0≤x≤a，从而计算出与城市发展水平相一致的住宅价格——住宅价值。改进过去只是由住宅市场价格指数，来判断一个城市住宅市场是否健康的方法。通过城市住宅价值分布函数与灰色系统理论结合，引进构造了GM（1，1）-城市住宅价值预测模型（?）（x）=-（?）／（?）∫1/（?）（x）dx，0≤x≤（?）。从而把城市住宅价值分布函数的作用，由检验历史住宅市场价格的合理性，扩展到指导未来住宅市场价格上来。从而为政府机构制定科学的宏观调控政策提供依据；也为住宅开发企业合理确定住宅出售价格提供理论基础。本文以郑州市为例，计算了2006年郑州市住宅价值分布情况，对2006年郑州市住宅市场运行状况进行了初步的分析；预测了2007年郑州市住宅价值分布情况，并分析了在利率不断的调整中，郑州市住宅价值的变化情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban housing which has been one of the most necessarily part in city system is a place which people can live in. It is impossible for the housing value existing without the influence of the whole city system. Housing value will change with city development, social reform, technology improvement, the change of human living style and the change of macro-economic situation.This paper considers that housing value is consisted of location cost, agriculture chance cost, production cost, and housing exploitation profit. First, with a limitation of the ideal city suppositions, the paper establish the linear urban housing valuefunction P=p₀-k·x with city space distance as its independent variable; analysisthe way some elements influence urban housing value, like dweller income, traffic cost, time chance value, public establishment, air pollution, sound pollution, inflation; and give deep research of the housing value in the marginal area of city. Then relaxing the limitation of the ideal city suppositions and learning from the urban economics research method that more care about the city space and lean on city’ economics development, the paper establish the non-linear urban housing value functionP（x）=-t/i∫1/H（x）dx,0≤x≤a to figure out the housing price according to the citysocial development level—housing value. It improves the method that using the market housing price index to judge whether the urban housing marketing is healthy.Then, the gray system theory has been introduced into the non-linear urban housing value function. It help to establish the GM （1,1）-non-linear urban housing value predicating model （?）（x）=-（?）/（?）∫1/（?）（x）dx,0≤x≤（?）. This model extends the actionof the non-linear urban housing value function. It’s to direct the housing price in next year, but not to checkout whether the housing price was rational in this year. With this advantage, it can help the government making macroscopic adjustments and controls policies. It also can help the real estate corporation giving a rational price to sell its house.Taking zhengzhou city as an example, this paper compute zhengzhou’s housing value distributing function in 2006 year and checkout whether the housing market is healthy. Then, it predicate zhengzhou’s housing value distributing in 2007 year, and analyses the way zhengzhou’s housing value changes with the interest rate fluctuation.更多还原