【作者】 蒋舟文；

【导师】 姜志德；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 西北地区水资源短缺、时空分布不均,水土资源不相匹配且生态环境脆弱,其水资源的开发利用对社会经济发展和生态环境质量的影响不容忽视;然而,以粮食作物为主的农业结构导致西北地区农业用水占经济用水85%以上,严重挤占工业、生活乃至生态用水,阻碍了水资源可持续利用与生态环境的持续改善。基于此,本文在分析水资源利用与农业结构冲突的基础上,指出为缓解二者之间的冲突,必须调整以粮食生产为主的农业结构:一方面,农业结构调整是农业节水途径的重要组成部分,而通过农业节水转移可以改善水资源利用现状;另一方面,优化农业生产结构不仅可以提高农业经济效益,还可以改善生态环境质量。在此基础上,探讨水资源约束下西北地区农业结构调整的可行途径,分析农业结构调整的思路与激励模式,并指出促进农业结构调整的对策建议。全文共由七章内容构成。第一章:导论。主要描述了论文的研究背景、目的、意义及国内外研究动态。说明了本文研究的思路、方法及可能创新之处。第二章:西北地区水资源利用与农业结构现状分析。本章在描述水资源利用及农业结构现状与存在问题的基础上,指出二者之间的冲突主要表现为:以粮食作物为主的农业结构导致农业用水挤占生态及非农用水。并进一步对冲突的成因进行了分析。第三章:基于农业节水转移的西北地区人口承载能力估算。通过建立基于农业节水转移的人口承载能力预测模型,对不同农业节水转移方案下的人口承载能力进行探讨。分析表明通过一定比例农业节水转移是可以承载起未来人口预估数的,今后应当采取各种措施、尤其要通过农业结构调整来充分挖掘农业节水潜力,并通过水权交易市场的建立加快农业节水有偿转移的步伐。第四章:水约束下农业经济与生态环境协调发展水平评价。通过构建农业经济—生态环境复合系统指标体系,引入农业经济与生态环境协调度及协调发展度模型,对二者协调发展水平进行定量分析。结果表明西北地区农业经济与生态环境之间的协调发展度极低,农业经济发展与生态环境之间的矛盾突出,今后应当加强农业结构调整,通过农业生产结构的转变实现农业经济发展与生态环境的良性循环。第五章:水约束下西北地区农业结构调整的途径分析。在指出水约束下西北地区农业结构调整必要性的基础上,通过分析农业结构调整的影响因素、农业用水结构与农业产值结构的相关关系及农业结构调整对提高农业水资源利用效率的贡献程度等方面探讨西北地区农业结构调整的可行性,并在此基础上明确水约束下西北地区农业结构调整的基本途径。第六章:水约束下西北地区农业结构调整的思路及激励模式。为让农户在利益机制的驱使下,自觉参与农业生产结构调整,使得西北地区的农业生产结构能够符合水约束下农业结构调整的基本途径,本章提出农业结构调整的指导思想与基本原则,并在此基础上设计出三元市场驱动的激励模式。第七章:水资源约束下促进西北地区农业结构调整的对策建议。为促进农业结构调整,本章提出如下相关对策建议:大力推进水权交易市场建设、努力构建流域统一管理体制、积极完善农产品市场环境建设等等。更多还原

【Abstract】 North-west shortage of water resources, uneven distribution of time and space, land and water resources do not match and fragile eco-environment, the development and utilization of water resources for socio-economic development and quality of the eco-environment should not be overlooked, however, mainly of food crops to the agricultural structure in North-west lead to the agricultural use of water account for more than 85 percent proportion to the economic use of water, serious misuse of industrial, life and ecological purposes use of water and impede the sustainable use of water resources and continuous improvement of eco-environment. Based on this, on the foundation of analysis the conflict between water resources utilization and agricultural structure,this paper point out that in order to ease the conflict between them, mainly of food production to agricultural structure must be adjusted: on the one hand, agricultural structure adjustment is an important component way of agriculture water-saving, through the transfer of agriculture water-saving can improve the status quo of water resources utilization, on the other hand, optimize the agricultural production structure can not only enhance the economic efficiency of agriculture, but also improve the quality of eco-environment. On this basis, we disscussed the feasible way of agricultural structure adjustment under the constraints of water resources in North-west,then analysis the way and incentive model of agricultural structure adjustment, and point out the countermeasure proposals in order to promote agricultural restructure. The full text is formed by seven chapter contents altogether.Chapter one: Introduction. Have described research background, purpose, meaning and dynamic study at home and abroad of the thesis mainly. Explain the research of this paper’thinking, method and possible innovation.Chapter two: The status quo analysis of water resources and agricultural structure in North-west. On the basis of describes the actuality and problems of water resources utilization and agricultural structure, this chapter point out the conflict between them mainly exhibit: mainly of food crops to agricultural structure cause the agricultural use of water squeeze ecological and non-agricultural water use. And further analysis the cause of conflict.Chapter three: Estimate of population carrying capacity based on agriculture water-saving transfer in North-west China. Through established the forecasting model of population carrying capacity based on the transfer of agriculture water-saving, discussed the population carrying capacity under different scenario of agriculture water-saving transfer. Analysis showed that the transfer of agriculture water-saving is the basis of carrying estimated future population, we should take all kinds of measures, particularly through agricultural restructure to fully excavate the potential of agriculture water-saving, and accelerate the pace of agriculture water-saving compensate transfer through establish the water rights trading market.Chapter four: Appraise on the level of coordinate development between agricultural economy and eco-environment under restriction of water resources. Through constructing agricultural economy and eco-environment Composite Index System, and introducting the coordinate development model of agricultural economy and eco-environment. The results show that the coordinate development level is very low between agricultural economy and eco-environment in North-west, the conflict between them is outstanding. In the future, we should strengthen agricultural structure adjustment; through change the agricultural production structure realize the positive cycle between agricultural economic development and eco-environment.Chapter five: Route analysis of agricultural structure adjustment under restriction of water resources in North-west China. On the basis of point out the necessary of agricultural structure adjustment under restriction of water resources, we discuss the feasibility of agricultural structure adjustment in North-west through analyse the impact factor of agricultural restructure, the correlation between agricultural water structure and agriculture production value structure, the level of contributions to improve agricultural water use efficiency through agricultural restructure. Then definite the basic way of agricultural structure adjustment under restriction of water resources in North-west China.Chapter six: Way and incentive mode analysis of agricultural structure adjustment under restriction of water resources in North-west China. In order to let farmers consciously participate in the adjustment of agricultural production structure driven by the mechanism of interests, then making the agricultural production structure accord with the basic way of agricultural structure adjustment under restriction of water resources, this chapter put forward the guiding idea and basic principles of agricultural structure adjustment, on the basis of this, we work out a incentive mode of three dimension market-driven mode.Chapter seven: Countermeasure proposals of promoting the agricultural structure adjustment under restriction of water resources in North-west China. In order to promote agricultural structure adjustment, this chapter put forward related countermeasure proposal as follows: vigorously promote the construction of water rights trading market, strively establish the system of valley unified management, and actively improve the construction of agricultural products’market environment, and so on.更多还原