【作者】 杨勇波；

【导师】 韩彩珍；

【作者基本信息】 中国人民大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 2007年,中国的经济增长率达到11.4%,远远高于美国、日本的2%左右的经济增长率。但是,经济在获得高速增长的同时,GDP的构成却发生了很大的变化,消费所占比重在连年下降,已经由2004年的53%下降到07年的36.2%。相比之下,固定资产投资所占比重却由2004年的44.2%上升到2007年的52.46%。而房地产投资虽然在固定资产中的比重一直在20%左右,但是在GDP中的比重却又所上升,2007年已经达到了10.25%。从某种意义上讲,中国经济的增长现在已经严重依赖房地产业,在一些地方省份表现的更为明显。世界上没有一个发达国家的经济增长是如此依靠房地产的。本文试图分析中国经济增长如此依靠房地产业的原因,并在此基础上提出一些改善的建议。本文认为,在中国经济高速发展的同时,中国经济也存在着诸多的问题,首先经济运行存在着很大的风险,这种风险包括消费储蓄比率失衡、外贸顺差增大、流动性过剩等问题等;其次,中国的经济增长也存在“后发劣势”的问题,就是只是一味的模仿国外的技术而忽视制度方面的改革,这样会使经济增长在长期不具有持续性;还有更严重的问题就是中国的渐进式改革已经使“国家机会主义”制度化,政府部门在借口垄断经济利益窒息民营经济发展的同时,会使政府对公平游戏规则的承诺变得不可信,而这会使经济增长最持久的动力—藏富于民的目标难以实现。本文对房地产业和中国经济增长的关系进行了计量分析,所运用的方法是对房地产投资和中国GDP的数据进行协整性分析并建立误差修正模型,同时进行格兰杰因果分析。误差修正模型说明,房地产投资每增长1%,GDP将增长0.2%,而格兰杰因果检验则说明,房地产投资是经济增长的原因,经济增长也是房地产投资增加的原因。对于中国经济增长如此依靠房地产业的原因,本文认为:首先,这是我国渐进式改革所导致的国家机会主义制度化的一种必然表现,在对政府权利没有有效制衡的条件下,政府就会利用政治上的垄断获得大量经济利益;其二,是目前我国的这种以加工为主、在世界的产业价值链上处于最低端的产业结构出现了问题;我国的产业结构仅仅是国际产业链中的一个加工环节,是价值增长的一个很小的部分,当这个利润很薄的行业由于政府机会主义而受到冲击的时候,很多原本属于制造业的投资就会流向房地产业;其三,地方政府在房地产业开发过程中可以获得高收益,土地出让金和相关的税费收入是当地财政收入的大部分来源,在经济绩效为主的官员考核制度指引下,地方政府就为大力扶持房地产业,使之成为当地的支柱产业,只要这样,地方行政官员才能有“政绩”;其四;我国的房地产业是以香港模式为蓝本的,香港模式过于注重土地储备,而且开发商的资金大部分又来源于银行,这样在内地,房地产业就会和地方政府有着千丝万缕的联系。为了提高我国房地产业的竞争力,促进房地产市场的健康发展,推动国民经济的持续、稳定增长,本文认为应强调四个方面:一是改变目前我国的这种低附加值的产业结构;我国不仅要做一个制造业大国,更要做一个制造业强国;同时,应该大力发展服务业,服务业基本上是以民营经济为主,这样就会使财富流向民众手中,从而促进消费的增加;二是改变我国目前的以经济业绩为主的官员考核制度,只有这样,政府官员才不会为了“政绩”而通过房地产业大搞“形象工程”,从而使GDP获得增长,但是却忽视了经济发展的质量;三是完善地方政府的财政收入制度;四是完善中央政府对地方政府的转移支付制度。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important sector in the national economy, the industry of real estate plays a significant role in prompting the growth of other sectors in the national economy due to its large scale. But if the national economy relies on the real estate too much, as a result, there will be bubbles and the unsustainable development of the economy, Because of its role in driving economic development of China, there is an initiative relationship between the real estate and economic development. In the year of 2007, the growth rate of China’s economy reaches 11.4%, far beyond the 2% growth rate of America and Japan. But, at the same time of the high growth rate, the component of GDP also changed greatly, the percentage of consumption declined yearly, from 53% in 2004 to 36.2% in 2007. Comparatively, the percentage of fixed assets rose from 44.2% in 2004 to 52.46% in 2007. The real estate kept a percentage of more or less 20% in the fixed asset, but its share in the GDP rose quickly, reached 10.25% in 2007. To some extent, the economic growth of China already relied on the real estate industry excessively, which can be seen much more clearly in some local provinces. There are no other countries whose economic growth relied on the real estate industry so much. This article tries to find out the reasons of this excessive relies on the real estate of the Chinese economy and give some suggestions.There are also many problems when China’s economy is growing fast. Firstly, so many risks exit in China’s economic growth, including the imbalance ratio between consumption and savings, the increases of surplus in foreign trade, excess liquidity and so on. Secondly, there are the problems of“comparative disadvantage”, which means it may be difficult to grow sustainable for China’s economy in the next years. But, the state opportunism, which could make the promise to the fair rule of society become unbelievable, may be more serious, as well, it also means it is difficult to achieve the goal of wealth possession among the people, which is the most important factor in the economic growth.This paper analyses the relationship between the investment of real estate and China’s economic growth by means of econometrics tools, including co-integration and ECM models and the analysis of Granger causality.For the reason that China’s economic growth is so dependent on the investment of real estate, this paper thinks that, firstly, it is inevitable as the state opportunism has become institutionalization in China’s gradual reforms. Secondly, because China’s industrial structure, which lies in the low-end in the world’s industrial chain, has problems. Thirdly, the chief executive of a region could receive promotion by means of helping the development of real estate industry. Fourthly, China’s real estate company pay more attention on the land reserves and financial credit to the bank , which are both controlled by governments in some degree in China.In order to enhance the competitiveness of real estate industry in our country, step up the healthy development of real estate market, promote the sustainable and steady progression of national economy , this article believe that four aspects continually should be stressed: Firstly, it is necessary to change industrial structure, at the same time; our nation should develop service industry. Service industry basically is dependent on the privately operated economy, which could lead to the wealth flow to the populace hand and promote the consumption increase; Secondly, it is essential to change our country’s present examining and assessment official system, which based on the economical achievement. Only in this way, government officials will not pursue“the achievements”by doing large-scale“the image project”through the real estate industry, however, actually neglecting the economic development quality. Thirdly, it is require to perfect Local authorities’ financial revenue system. Fourthly, it is indispensable to perfect transfer payment system which Central authorities support Local authorities’.更多还原