【作者】 王丽楠；

【导师】 陈新明；

【作者基本信息】 中国人民大学 ， 国际政治， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,中国已经跃居世界第二大石油消费国,仅此于美国。面临日益紧张的国内石油需求和供给,必须依靠大量的进口来满足国内需求。而进口就意味着要同其他国家发生关系,当牵扯到除本国以外的第二国时,我们就不得不考虑应付的代价和存在的风险。在世界油价不断飙升的状况下,消费国与生产国、消费国之间、生产国之间的关系日趋紧张,再加上大多数石油资源丰富的地区和国家的局势不稳定,中国从国外进口石油就要面临更多的风险。影响石油进口风险的因素有很多,如生产、运输、价格、两国经济关系、政治关系、出口国的能源政策等等,都关系着进口国从出口国进口石油所存在的风险程度。对于中国来说,最主要的进口来源地是中东、非洲、中亚、俄罗斯,本文选取这些地区中最具代表性和近年来中国较关注的俄罗斯、伊朗和非洲来论述。从生产因素分析,非洲石油不仅资源丰富、油质好、易提取,而且埋藏浅、易开采,投资回报率高,但是缺乏先进的技术;俄罗斯由于石油工业开发较早,老油田居多,开采潜力有限,但是各方面的技术水平先进;伊朗的石油资源丰富,但是油质较非洲地区差,开采潜力大,但是能力有限,技术不足。从运输因素分析,中俄两国依山傍水,边境线绵长,俄罗斯无疑是中国最安全、最便捷的来源地,陆路运输较海运安全性高、而且灵活,但是运输成本较海运高;伊朗到中国的过境运输国家大多局势不稳,很难保证石油运输的安全;由于地理位置限制,非洲是运输安全系数最低的地区,所经海域和海峡不仅海盗猖獗,而且海难频繁,路途遥远,易发生事故。从政治因素分析,中俄两国政治关系良好,且俄国内局势相对稳定,两国人民友谊深厚,但是俄罗斯对崛起的中国存在很强的戒备心理,对亚洲国家的能源外交遵循灵活、平衡的原则,同时俄美关系也是影响俄中关系的重要因素;伊朗局势是21世纪以来国际社会十分关注的焦点,核问题的升级和内贾德总理对西方国家的强硬态度,使伊朗国际国内环境都处于不稳定状态中,此外,中伊两国人民缺乏真正的相互了解和理解,但是中国在国际社会上于俄罗斯一起站在伊朗一边,缓解伊朗的紧张局势,成为伊朗在国际上稳定的靠山,拉近了中伊两国的距离;作为同是第三世界的非洲国家,与中国的政治关系发展良好,特别是中非合作论坛,更拉近了两地人民的距离,增进了相互了解,但是非洲部分国家由于种族冲突、宗教矛盾、历史因素等原因,战乱频繁,政局相对动荡,且对非洲能源的垂涎和对中国崛起的阻挠使西方国家制造不利于中国的言论,并加紧同中国争夺能源的步伐。从经济因素分析,俄罗斯与中国双边贸易势头良好,共同利益多,有利于两国进一步深化能源领域的合作,虽然由于其灵活平衡的政策导致一些项目迟迟未兑现,但总的发展趋势是平稳的;伊朗“向东看”的总体政策有利于中伊两国合作,且中国企业进入伊朗参与建设较多,两国贸易额也在逐年增长;中非贸易开始较晚,但是中国对非洲的投资、援助让非洲国家向中国敞开了大门,在共同利益的驱使下,中非加强了在经贸、建设、能源等各个领域的合作。通过以上的分析,可以看到我国从俄罗斯、伊朗、非洲进口石油所要面临的优势和劣势,并做出能够保障中国石油安全的进口战略选择:重点深化同俄罗斯的合作,增强中俄互信;继续加快中国企业走进非洲的步伐,实现远洋运输自主;慎重考虑对伊朗能源战略,权衡经济利益和政治利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, China has become the second largest oil consuming country, while the United States of America ranks the first. Meeting the shorter domestic petroleum supply, China has to import petroleum from abroad, which means contacting other countries. In this process the cost and risk of importing have to be taken into consideration. As the oil price goes high continuously, the relations between oil consuming countries and oil producing countries, and the relations among oil consuming countries as well as oil producing countries become tight increasingly. Moreover, the conditions in most areas and countries which are rich in oil resources are turbulent, thus there are more risks for China to import oil from abroad.There are many factors which will affect the oil importation, such as production, transportation, price, bilateral relations of economy and politics etc. For China, the most important petroleum sources are the Middle East, Africa, central Asia and Russia. This essay selects Russia, Iran and Africa as objects to discuss, because at present China has put much more attention on them.From the factor of productivity, the oil in Africa is not only abundant, high grade, easy to distill, but also is full of high investment profit and easy to exploit. However, it is lacking in advanced technology. The petroleum exploration in Russia is early, thus it has advanced technology in every aspects. There are many old oil fields and the potentiality to exploit is limited. Iran has abundant resources of petroleum and high potentiality to exploit. However, its petroleum quality is worse than that in Africa. Its ability to exploit is limited and lack of technology.From the factor of transportation, Russia and China are at the foot of a hill and beside a stream. The boundary line is very long. Russia is the safest and most convenient source of petroleum for China. The transportation on line is much safer and more flexible than that by sea. But the transportation fee on line is higher. Most countries which the transportation line from Iran to China are turbulent. Thus the safety is not guaranteed. As the limitation of geographical position, the transportation safety from Africa to China is the worst one. The pirate in the sea area and the strait which the transportation line goes through are rampant. Because of the long transportation line the shipwrecks is frequent.From the analyze of both advantage and disadvantage of importing petroleum from Russia, Iran and Africa, we may make out our strategic choice that will best guarantee China’s oil security. China shall promote mutual trust between Russia and China, so as to deepen the cooperation with Russia, quicken the paces of enterprises in China to enter Africa so as to realize our independence of the sea transportation, while carefully consider our energy strategy with Iran and weigh the balance of political interests and economic interests.更多还原